"Won dollar exchange rate 1,500 won, about the nature of fear"

"Won dollar exchange rate 1,500 won, about the nature of fear"

These days, YouTube and SNS are full of clickbait that promotes fear, such as "exchange rate exceeding 1,500 won = national collapse."

In conclusion, 1,500 won does not ruin the country.

The exchange rate is not a 'switch' that determines the collapse of the system, but a 'continuous variable' that reflects the constitution of the economy.

1. The Trap of Numbers: W1500 is not a critical point

The sky turns red the moment it turns from 1,499 won to 1,500 won, and the market does not collapse immediately.

Import prices, corporate cost structure, and foreign currency debt burdens have already begun to be sufficiently adjusted when they have already exceeded 1400 won. 1500 won is not the beginning of a new phase, but is just one number on the path that is already in progress.

The essence of the problem is obscured and only fear remains when a number is excessively given meaning. What we really need to pay attention to is the actual data behind the numbers.

2. Cold Data: The substance of the KRW 1500 phase

The difference between the current high exchange rate phase and the past crisis is evident in the indicators.

* Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) 89.1 Level: The nominal exchange rate is close to 1,500 won, but the real value has already fallen to the level of the financial crisis considering the price difference with the other country. This reflects the market's agreement that the won has already become "cheap enough."

* Qualitative Defense of Foreign Exchange Reserves: Among the $430 billion in reserves, the proportion of liquidity assets that can be immediately cashed in (national bonds, etc.) is high. In particular, unlike 1997, net foreign financial loans held by private companies (individuals and companies) exceeded $1 trillion, supporting the country's foreign currency absorption power as a whole.

* Residents' Foreign Currency Deposit Movement: Despite the recent high exchange rate, the balance of foreign currency deposits by companies and individuals has remained around $100 billion. This is a sign that they are not stamping their feet because they cannot get dollars like in the past, but that they are realizing profits from rising exchange rates or strategically allocating assets.

3. The Essential Question: Who Dos What

Holding on to numbers is giving up thinking. We have to change the question.

It is not whether 1,500 won is dangerous, but whether people want to buy the won at that price. There is an answer to the actual behavior of market players.

* Foreign funds: Do foreigners maintain long-term buying in key sectors such as semiconductors, or are they throwing bonds and stocks at the same time out of concern for currency loss. Whether it is a "de-Korea" or a "low-point buying" is what their nature of the funds tell us.

* Domestic companies: Do they exchange dollars earned from export money into Korean won to invest in domestic facilities or invest in overseas asset acquisition? If insiders do not trust their currency, that is the strongest sign of crisis.

* Individual Portfolio: Has the proportion of overseas stocks of Seo Hak- ants gone beyond fear to become a structural constant? This is not just speculation, but an adjustment of expectations for Korean economic growth.

conclusion

If the actions of these three subjects point in the same direction, the answer becomes clear.

Whether the won will recover to attractive assets again or enter an era where high exchange rates are the default values.

What we should be afraid of is not the number 1,500. "No one wants to buy the won despite the cheap price."

What is needed now is not vague pessimism, but cold reason to read the signals sent by these subjects as data.