2023. 12. 7. 16:58ㆍ경제이슈 시황정리
[Summary of major issues in major countries]
# the United States of America
The Mortgage Banking Association (MBA) announced last week that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.17%. The lowest mortgage rate since the end of August. The mortgage rate, which was over 8% in early October, has returned to the 7% level. The number of refinancing applications for housing loans surged 14% from the previous week, up 10% from the previous year.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced a 5.2% annualized increase in labor productivity in non-agricultural sectors in the third quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. It raised its preliminary increase of 4.7% by 0.5 percentage point, exceeding the Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) estimate of 4.9 percent.
# China
China Daily, the government of Guangdong Province in China, has launched a special program to boost consumption by the end of this year. A total of 100 million yuan (about 18.3 billion won) worth of gift certificates will be issued, along with airline and hotel discounts as well as admission fees to major tourist destinations. Hainan Province will provide gift certificates valid until the end of the year. Liaoning Province also announced the payment of 20 million yuan gift certificates.
Thanks to the gradual recovery of international credit rating agencies Fitch and the central government's policy support, LGFV, a special corporation established by local governments to invest in infrastructure and social welfare projects, is expected to lower its default risk. As local governments' fiscal revenues improve next year, LGFV's capacity to repay debts and raise funds for public projects is expected to grow.
# Korea
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that it plans to seek support to ease the burden on companies if imports from third countries are urgently needed due to prolonged disruption in imports from China. In the case of vehicles, if the logistics cost is subsidized, about 5 billion won per year will compensate for the difference in the cost of introducing China and third countries, and it will cost about 26 billion won for industrial factors.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced the preliminary feasibility study of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance for the construction of a stockpile base exclusively for key minerals in the country. Starting next year, it is expected that the total project cost will be 241.7 billion won, a stockpile base to be built on 190,000 square meters of land in the Saemangeum National Industrial Complex, and an infrastructure to support stable growth of the domestic industry and respond quickly to the global supply chain crisis. The stockpile of 13 rare metals will be expanded to more than 100 days by 2031, and the current stockpile and management of minerals currently being stored and planned to be expanded in the future will be carried out systematically.
# Others
CANADA's central bank announces decision to keep policy rate at 5% and bank balance sheet normalised as further signs show monetary policy is easing consumption, calming inflationary pressures. Remains concerned about risks to inflation outlook, says prepared to raise interest rates further if needed.
"According to the analysis of the BOJ, it has been shown to have an effect on inflation and wages," said Vice President Himino. "I think it is a sign of the right direction." He also said that without a virtuous cycle between wages and prices, Japan is likely to return to its deflationary state in the past. He said he will patiently maintain the easing policy until the achievement of stable and continuous price targets becomes visible.
# economic indicators
U.S. ADP employment numbers change by 103,000 in November (expected 130,000 in October and 113,000 in October)
EUR ZONE OCTO retail sales 0.1% month-on-month (expected 0.2%; Sept -0.3%)
[Dashin Securities Investment Strategy/Market Telegram Channel]
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