2026. 6. 18. 07:16ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
The emergence of Wash, the beginning of an era of global interest rate hikes... Here's what the Fed's meeting will look like yesterday. As expected, the rate was frozen, but nine members insisted on rising interest rates and raised the rate this year to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in March, expressing in the dot plot that they will raise the rate at least once this year. Expectations for a rate cut have disappeared, and the topic of interest rates has changed rapidly, such as how many rate hikes there will be in the future.
Wash's announcement confirmed that he is definitely concerned about price stability and inflation. Yesterday, he especially emphasized price stability. When his intentions were clearly revealed, interest rates rose and Nasdaq and S&P closed down more than 1 percent. Most importantly, the FOMC revealed that there will be no more detailed explanations of the economy and interest rates in the future. This is the most important point. There are no more forward guidance, no more dots, and tables. He said that financial markets should make pricing decisions on their own. It sounds good, but the Fed has so far been kind in forecasting future interest rates and economies, so the financial market price has been set accordingly, and from now on, you can do it on your own, whether it's interest rates or economic outlooks. The end of volatility, options traders are good, but we'll have to live in tremendous volatility.
The 14 MOUs with Iran, which were made public on Monday, were agreements that started with money and ended with money. Hormuz has only 60 days of free passage, and the U.S. will withdraw 300 billion dollars from its private equity fund, while other countries interested in Iran's reconstruction should invest. After 60 days, Iran will rip off a pin to protect it and pay compensation for reconstruction of the Iranian state, which means that since the U.S. has spent a lot of money fighting wars, countries involved in Hormuz and oil imports should pay for it. Korea must also be under heavy burden. I am worried about the exchange rate.
Yesterday morning, Woori turned the market's decline upward with a 100 trillion won shareholder return on Hynix's excess profit distribution (PS), and in the afternoon, it suddenly jumped into a report by NH Securities, which said Hong Du-kae is likely to be listed as a watchlist for MSCI's advanced countries. An important point in yesterday's happening was a research paper by a securities firm, which probably indicates that participants still want to raise the index somehow. Anyway, expectations are high on shareholders' return, MSCI index will be included, and Korea seems to be an island country that is living far from the global stock market these days.
I am worried again about the threat of private equity funds as I see many local banks with their roots in the U.S. have lost their stocks due to Wash's willingness to raise interest rates. The world has now moved on to an era of interest rate hikes due to inflation. As Governor Shin Hyun-song strongly predicts a rate hike, the rate hike has now become a constant and only its breadth and frequency have become variables. I will skip yesterday's individual U.S. market share price. The writing got longer…
I go to the bathroom at dawn when I get older, so I wake up at 3 o'clock without exception. Coincidentally, Wash started the presentation at that time and slept under a foot 1360, which was still wandering after the news announcement, but I think I got caught by a foot. Now we have to live in the unfriendly era of the Fed and invest in it. There will be a lot of analysts' arguments, and star analysts will be born depending on who gets it right. Rather, individuals should analyze the market well with a cool head.
It means that a person like me who runs as a dog godai gets overloaded. Anyway, you have to fight under unfavorable conditions. I didn't know what the surge in the market was like yesterday afternoon, so I followed him for now, but now I know why it went up. An optional person has to organize his position and follow him for now when the market suddenly fluctuates. Anyway, if you want to analyze and forecast the market by yourself, it will be harder than now, so you'll have to build up your stamina. I'll have to go back to the officetel gym after I get out of the money and take a shower and sauna. Let's exercise. Let's work out. Of course, the sauna is also hard...