2026. 6. 18. 05:31ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
Paul Tudor Jones Predicts Japan Bubble Collapse, Expects Destructive Decline After More Than a Year-long Rise
1. The reason why it has been the grand prize winning ticket for about a year (currently about 60% of the winning ticket)
(1) Early stages of the AI revolution: It is currently at an inflection point of productivity improvement similar to that of the PC revolution (77 full-scale distribution = 22 gpt, 81 MS-DOS = 26 Claude) or the Internet revolution (95 full-scale commercialization)
(2) The rate of increase is not high yet: Nasdaq rose 100% a year at the time of dot-com bubble in 1999. Since then, it has fallen since March 00
(3) The economic environment is similar to that of the dot-com bubble: Goldilocks environment where prices fall, interest rates fall and the economy grows. Kevin Wash also won't be able to raise rates until the midterm elections.
2. Expected inevitable fall due to supply-demand imbalance after huge rise
- It is now similar to dot-com bubble
The ipo rush of 1999~00 came and the selling restrictions began in 01 and plunged
-5 to 6 per cent of the total market capitalization expected for next year's ipo. Incineration due to 2-3 per cent share buyback in the past decade. Current companies' ai investment makes them free to buy back their own shares.
- 18 months from now, the selling restrictions will begin
The leverage and stock concentration (buffit index of more than 200 percent) are quite high.
- The source of consumption that is currently supporting the U.S. economy is the negative effect of asset growth. When stocks start to plunge, the reverse negative effect (a drop in consumption due to a fall in asset prices) causes a greater decline.
- Bonds are overissued and individual investors participate in the market is also the largest in history.
- Ai Boom Raises Unlisted Share Ratio to 16 Percent (6 Percent at the time of Subprime Mortgage in 2008)
3. Current investment plan
- The long-term index investment is no longer the correct answer because the forward per is 23.
-AI-Related Stocks: Bullish Market Flow Remains Valid
-Yen (JPY): The interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan has been lowered, but the exchange rate is still high, and a strong yen will cause dollar assets to shift to the yen. Takaichi Policy also strengthens the yen
-Bitcoin: A Long-Term Inflation Hedge As A Fully Quantified Digital Asset