Many people say that Japan collapses because of

2025. 11. 30. 08:23U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

Many people say that Japan collapses because of debt, but you have not seen much data like the one below.

Japan's government/national debt almost topped the list worldwide last year, accounting for a whopping 237 percent (Government Debt to GDP = 237 percent) as of 2024, with the debt-ridden U.S. also accounting for 124 percent, about half that of Japan, and Korea, in particular, a mere 47 percent, which is considerably healthier than Japan and the U.S.

However, Japan has been controlling the interest rate of government bonds until recently, so the interest payments that go out to this large country's debt are very small, and if you look at the graph below, the GDP to net interest payments are only about 0.5 percent.

The second graph is the interest payment accounting for the Japanese government's (blue) annual expenditure, which is only about 6.26 percent as of 2022, and unlike Korea (red), it is continuously decreasing.  

The Bank of Japan has recently announced that it will use more measures such as cheap short-term government bonds if there is a problem with the supply of money due to the rise in long-term government bond rates due to the interest rate control that has been discontinued. Japan has no particular problem in making new debts because people have a lot of cash savings and domestic demand for government bonds.  

The Japanese yen and the Korean won differ in status, and I have previously posted how much Korean won futures are traded in the Chicago futures market. There are not many transactions compared to other currencies now and then, but in short, nothing is approved in won. What do you think is the special reason why people should buy won?

It is said that the exchange rate goes up because Korean ants buy U.S. stocks, but if it is true, I don't know if the Korean government can send money to the U.S. by 20 dollars every year with such physical strength.

I don't understand why you're going to invest 350 Billion Dollars in the United States based on your weak physical strength that you're holding on to ants.    

Sooner or later, the exchange rate will jump significantly and Korean government bonds will be sold for debt service, which may outpace Japan, which has three or four times the economic size of Korea.

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