Exchange rate of 1,500 won fear

🇺🇸💵 Exchange rate of 1,500 won fear...
Far-right conservatives say the country is doomed..
The real cause is not Korea

With the exchange rate at 1,500 won
"Korea's economy is in crisis," "I'm doomed." There are a lot of comments like that, right?

Actually, the won's weakness is not because of Korea
It is a phenomenon caused by a complete change in the 'money flow' around the world.

1. It's not the Korean economy that raised the exchange rate, but it's a "surge in overseas investment."

The amount of money that Koreans sent abroad this year is...

Private Overseas Stock Investment: $71.8 Billion

Corporate Foreign Direct Investment: USD 20.6 Billion

Foreign securities investment: $60.3 billion

➡ Total "Dollar Earned from Trade"
It's a structure that we've sent them all abroad ourselves.

Tell me the Woori Bank report as it is:
"The demand for foreign stock exchange firmly supports the downside of the exchange rate."

In other words, the main culprit behind the exchange rate rise is not external shocks
It's a boom in foreign investment by Koreans.

2. Why is the world's money being sucked into the United States?

The United States is now in complete black hole mode of capital.

U.S. interest rates still 2% higher than in South Korea

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle AI, and Data Center investment is the largest ever

AI Infrastructure CAPEX Cycle Boost

Investment from around the world is flocking to the U.S
Korean, Japanese, and Chinese currencies are all weakened.

For reference, the Japanese yen is the weakest in 50 years based on REER.

3. "Is the high exchange rate a favorable factor for exports?" → Now the formula is broken

the old formula
Exchange rate UP → Price competitiveness UP
This isn't working right now.

Because

Japan: Ultra (超) Yen Low Prices Unbelievably Cheap

China: Ultra-cheap Dumping

Weak won = The effect of increasing competitiveness almost evaporates

4. Why the Government even mobilized the National Pension Service

The government, the Bank of Korea, the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and the National Pension Service
We created the first four-way consultative body ever.

There is only one purpose:
exchange rate stability

foreign exchange hedge

Selling overseas assets (supplied in dollars)

strategy for mitigating market volatility

It's not a normal situation.
However, experts agree that it is not a structural crisis.

5. the final conclusion of the experts

✔ You can go 1,500 won
✔ But it's not a long-lasting structural crisis
✔ Sufficient foreign exchange reserves / No foreigners leaving / CDS stability

In other words, this high exchange rate is
It's not that the Korean economy collapsed
that it is the result of global capital movement.

6. So what should investors do? (Core)

✔ Advantageous position when exchange rate is high

Dollar deposits and foreign currency RP

Exchange Exposed ETF

Large U.S. stocks and AI infrastructure

Companies selling dollars such as shipbuilding and automobiles

✔ When the exchange rate stabilizes or falls

Japanese stocks (likely to strengthen the yen)

Secondary batteries, growth stocks rebound

Fewer Exchange Loans, such as Kakao and Naver

✔ Dangerous businesses

aviation, refining, and steel

Foreign currency PF a lot of construction

a company with a lot of won debt

conclusion

The exchange rate of 1,500 won is not a sign of fear
It's a shift in global capital restructuring.
It looks like a crisis, but if you look at the structure, it's a section where opportunities open.