2024. 10. 3. 09:51ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
Yesterday's market in the U.S. was explained by the jitters in the Middle East and the hope of a rate cut. The real risk in the Middle East is Iran's willingness to fight aggressively. I keep insisting that's not the case. I think the rate cut will continue slowly. Yesterday's ADP private sector jobs came in at 143,000, higher than the 125,000 estimate, which was a huge increase from 99,000 in August. I think it's a preview of the real miscellaneous data that's coming out the day after tomorrow. The unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls in September will also come out well, which will give a boost to the soft landing scenario of the MiCook economy. And seeing the yen rise to 146, it seems like Yellen and Ishiba ended up behind the scenes trying to win Harris' election. Japan's Nikkei is now up more than 2%.
It's also interesting to hear that the strike of port workers in the eastern part of the U.S. is causing trauma during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a procession of people trying to buy toilet paper again. However, we can put off inflation worries for a while, so we should focus on miscellaneous data and interest rate cuts. I think the Middle East risk is a shell that can explode at any time, but Iran, the Persian Empire, will not make a stupid decision. The problem is Israel.
This is the story of the U.S. market, and we are really worried about the three battles that have become a headache for our heroes. Following Morgan Stanley's negative reporter, Macquarie's 64,000 won goal is literally selling everything. Objectively, the collapse of foundry, doubts about whether HBM also passed the test, falling DRAM prices, and most importantly, Chairman J-Dragon's governance risk are all over the top. It's a semiconductor republic, and I'm also worried about tax revenue.
One interesting article I read today is a reference to an old adage from the U.S. stock market. It's "Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur," a legendary adage from the old days of Wall Street. It's a slang term for an investment strategy based on two important Jewish holidays, Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. This strategy represents a pattern that uses investor sentiment during the holiday season. It's about selling it to Rosh Hashanah on the Jewish New Year and buying it to Yom Kippur, the popular day, but human psychology is all the same. FYI, the Jewish Lunar New Year is on the 11th of this month. If you want to test whether you make real money if you sell it that day and buy it on the 21st, do it...
Today's holiday is a honey day when I think about my body. I take medicine and my physical strength is getting better. It would be nice if the real sky would open and God would come to punish the bad guys, but in reality, it would be the Gojoseon of Dangun who married a bear and opened the sky on the Korean Peninsula. We expect the real sky to open, but we have to live in the present era without principles and common sense and vision. Until the sky opens, we can each live together...
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