First of all, I'd like to thank all of you for liking my

2024. 7. 20. 09:59U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

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First of all, I'd like to thank all of you for liking my writing in the Energy Economics Newspaper. It was less than I thought (ㅠㅠ)), but thank you still. The market is shaking with news coming from the U.S. The disruptions to the Microsoft and CloudStrike systems have stopped planes and factories, not because of hacking, but it's like I'm watching Bruce Willis's last installment of Die Hard, the fourth installment.

Another piece of news from the U.S. may be Trump's words from his acceptance speech for the Republican presidential nomination. He's sure to attack immigrants, open China, and eventually break his baby's obligation to raise tariffs on electric cars. And even though there's news that Biden will start campaigning again next week, I think it's only a matter of time before the candidates are replaced. It seems that the campaign is running out of money, rather than Pelosi and Obama urging Biden to take the lead. Biden will give up his candidacy. The Democratic Party will still be at a disadvantage because Vice President Harris, Michigan Gov. Whitmer, and California Gov. Newsom are less recognized than they are. And Whitmer and Newsom are expected to be aiming for the next election, not this one.

If you look at the polls showing that the Republican Party is also advantageous in the House of Representatives elections, you will see that both the president and the House of Representatives will be controlled by Republicans. If this happens, Trump's policy will lead to inflation unconditionally. A significant cut in interest rates will not be possible. You won't be able to easily escape the era of high interest rates. Chairman Dimon's remarks in the past also bothers me. Trump says he will cut interest rates immediately if he takes power, but it would be absurd that he doesn't care about inflation because he knows Biden's popularity has fallen due to inflation.

Still, we're going to cut interest rates in September as a precaution against the economic downturn. Maybe we'll cut it a few times in the future. Money is already shifting the stream from IT stocks to bonds, which are real safe assets, and it's contradictory, but I think it's going to transfer the stream of money to commodities in anticipation of inflation in the Trump era. There's a forecast that it's going to rain a lot. I hope the stream of rain doesn't damage the Korean Peninsula though. Have a nice and safe week. I'm going to stay home watching The Open in the UK.

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