Intel Investment Discussion Summary

I exchanged views on Intel in the study, and I summarized over 10 long articles in the GPT. It's pretty good

Intel Investment Discussion Summary

a pro-investment opinion

1. Semiconductor production capacity and foundry business
   - Intel can produce and manufacture semiconductors in the U.S., which seems attractive, coupled with the U.S. government's stance on domestic production rather than relying on Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.

2. Government support and long-term prospects
   - Intel is the largest beneficiary of the CHIPS ACT, likely to receive up to $19.5 billion in funding from the U.S. government, which could lead to long-term investment value.

3. stock price and financial improvement
   - Currently, Intel's stock price is trading at 17.6 times the non-general accounting-based stock price return ratio and 1.36 times the stock price net asset ratio in fiscal 2025. This is seen as a buying opportunity, 37% lower than the 10-year average. In addition, there are positive signs, such as a 31% increase in operating funds and a 30% increase in free cash flow, as well as a 31% increase in cost savings and financial improvements.

4. AI and Data Center Market Growth
   - Intel has high expectations for growth in the AI PC and data center markets, and new processes, Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake, are scheduled to be released. Intel, which has been alienated from the AI rally, has high growth potential as it reorganizes its business structure.

opposition to investment

1. Foundry Business Performance Inadequate
   - Intel's 2023 foundry revenue is $18.9 billion, higher than Samsung's $14 billion, but 95% of this is internal sales. Outside client sales are just $950 billion, and they are experiencing technology and yield challenges.

2. Technical and Schedule Compliance Issues
   - Intel's next-generation product launch schedule is uncertain, and troubleshooting of existing products is delayed. For example, the eTVB issue has not yet been resolved, and there is a possibility that the launch of the 15th generation product will be postponed until next year.

3. Stock Price Rise Sustainability Questions
   - Sustainability is questionable in that the recent rise in stock prices has been made without any apparent favorable factors. For example, Intel's stock price has risen 10.7% in the last three trading days, but it is still down more than 30% from the beginning of the year. If the earnings release does not meet expectations, the stock is likely to fall.

4. long-term uncertainty
   - Intel's innovative technological progress is needed, and it has the potential to disappoint in the long run. It is expected that it will take time for the foundry business to settle on the trajectory, and it is considered a stock that is difficult to access easily at the moment.