2024. 6. 15. 08:46ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
While the U.S. stock market appears to be in a very hot bull market, with the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs day after day, the market below the surface looks very sluggish.
The problem is that the overall market uptrend is led by a small number of technology giants and large caps. In short, the health of the market, or the breadth of the market, is the worst.
The best illustration of this is the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and their same-weighted indexes. The same-weighted index, which is evenly distributed compared to indexes with higher weighting on large caps, still hasn't broken its March high.
Now there are two choices left in the market: all or nothing. Either the whole market, which is already pretty sluggish, is following back, or big stocks are going through adjustments, driving the market down.
Unfortunately, the situation is progressing closer to the latter. The strongest catalyst is political uncertainty in Europe. Wall Street is bracing for the risk of political unrest in France spreading across Europe, including Italy.
If not, the risks to France are significant. France is an indispensable leading country in the EU. The announcement by the National Union, which issued a statement against the EU, now reveals the euro's structural weakness.
The weakening of the euro and the fragmentation of the European Union are shaking global asset markets across the board. Of course, it will likely be a short-term negative factor, but markets are already bracing for the next. The strength of gold makes it the best refuge for asset market disruptions caused by the weakening of the euro and the fragmentation of the EU
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