Will the industries be baton-touched with 3 strong industries in the last long-t

2024. 6. 10. 02:11U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

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Will the industries be baton-touched with 3 strong industries in the last long-term 2 wave?

★ Leading industries last week (based on market shareholders)
Rising industries: Semiconductors (part of equipment), pharmaceutical/bayo, banks, shipbuilding, defense industry                                                                                              
Press neck industries: (rising) Food and beverage, automobiles, / (rising) shipping,          
Rebounding industries: Electric vehicles, aviation, gaming,
Short-term Trends Deviated: Power Equipment, Cosmetics, Enter, Nuclear Power Plant, Hydrogen, Solar Power,            

★ Market close last week

  Last week, the stock market was booming, but in the end, it broke through the button line at 61.8 (Kodak broke through the mid-term adjustment line). Since we also have a high proportion of semiconductors (details in the industry), the profit rules, which had been struggling before the holiday, have risen in just one day, making the weekend comfortable

Still, looking back on last week, it was also a hectic week, with various economic indicators and news that the market was lifted up and down due to the play of Kobe's gifts and the sale of programs by industry.

On a daily basis, semiconductors, automobiles, and the whole nation are related to the drilling of the East Sea gas field, with concerns over a slowdown in the number of job openings following the slowdown in the US ISM manufacturing index the day before Tuesday. The three-way comment from Jensen Hwang on Wednesday ended with a rise in electric vehicles for the first time in three hundred and nine years. After the holiday, the mid-term wave, which began with a new trend in US semiconductor stocks, also joined SK Hynix, some equipment, and electric vehicle families to end by breaking the trend line. In particular, KOSDAQ showed a relatively stronger rise as expected last week due to the movement of electric vehicles and semiconductors.    

Looking at this from the perspective of the wave, as in the futures chart below, the KOSPI broke the short-term trend resistance line from 61.8% at the end of the mid-term adjustment to Monday's tram corps in one day. But it's also the 13th consecutive month. In the last two years, 13 mid- to long-term adjustments have been made. This cannot be said to have been decided, but it seems to be a recent trend. And it seems like it's been pressed again, and it seems that the trend has shifted to 61.8%, breaking through the central line and reversing the decline while running for two days.

In the case of the KOSDAQ, the momentum for the past week was stronger than that of the exchange, but it failed to change the trend during the May rebound and broke through the button line center line at the same time because it was a rebound after being pushed back again. However, by reversing the decline from the March high point, it has not recovered even 50% yet, so further attempts to rise are needed before it can be called a trend change.

In addition, according to the indicators released last week, the U.S. 10-year interest rate fell further due to Canada and the ECB's base rate cuts, as the employment market continued to slow down to 15.2 million in May, significantly less than the expected 17.5 million, according to the ADP private employment report. Nevertheless, semiconductor industries and big tech stocks, which are certain to improve their performance, broke through the trend line again and closed the Nasdaq at a new high.  

In the end, interest rates, whether from US Cook or Korea, are focusing on sectors with solid performance, especially semiconductor industries, while the economy is unstable. Supply and demand is strengthening with large-cap stocks (the top market capitalization in Kodak) rather than small and medium-sized stocks. In other words, it should be seen that even in uncertain economic conditions, it is concentrated on children who are likely to earn money well (of course, the stock price position should be reflected).

However, the report on the employment of U.S. funds showed a sharp increase in employment last week, which is the opposite of the overall interest rate trend, with interest rates rising by 15BP to 4.43%. In addition, night futures also fell by 0.79%, increasing the possibility of a market return earlier in the week.

★ This week's countermeasures and strategies by industry

In the end, this week's stock market will see the aftermath of the rise in interest rates following the US employment trend provide an excuse for adjustment following the expansion of last week's short-term rise. Well, for now, the U.S. has held out well, and Korea is not likely to be far behind due to semiconductors and excessive electric vehicles at the forefront of the rebound

However, the pharmaceutical/bayo side seems to need attention to sudden fluctuations in interest rates, but the important thing is that last week's rebound trend should never be broken. If you break the rebound trend again, it's important to hold on well because it requires an additional process to hold on to the low point, reverse it, press it, and then break through. Moreover, it seems better to press well and then open the high point than to rise directly and open it from the high point.

In addition, there are many big issues from CPI (there was an opinion that there is a lot of room for low results) to FOMC meetings this week, so we need to be prepared for volatility, but I think we can overcome this by differentiating by industry.  

And as I organized the data over the weekend, it's a personal point of view, but I think there are some interesting parts. My ID card birthday is January 18th, so I remember that day early this year, although it's not 100% what happened. It was the day when the market broke suddenly while digesting the year-end promotional volume, and it was due to the impact of TMSC's good performance.

On that day, meaningful market prices such as PSK Holdings, Hynix, and Techwing occurred every day or two (see weekly market conditions in January 4th week), and they were the ones who received the spectacular firework market price last Friday. In other words, they started around January 18th. In particular, some of the semiconductor equipment stocks were large and vice-captain among the children who moved around that time

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