2024. 4. 27. 11:33ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
It seems that the stock market is slowly turning back into a fiery market
There have been many twists and turns, but the New York Stock Exchange has had its best week since November, showing a strong recovery. The GDP and inflation data released yesterday, and today's PCE price index, all were not positive for the market, but the market remains bullish.
The PCE price index, the inflation data the Fed is paying attention to, was higher than expected today, but it was generally in line with Wall Street's expectations. Inflation is showing the possibility of sticking, but the market still sees the possibility of two rate cuts this year.
Of course, with inflation rising for the third consecutive month, it is hard to say that these expectations are realistic, but the important thing is that the market is still aware of the possibility of a rate cut this year.
It is also noteworthy that today's stock market was quite strong, but today's market was completely the opposite of yesterday's. While the performance of Google and Microsoft has been very strong, the broader market has not been very impressive.
If you look at the previous Dow theory, it's not a very positive signal. However, given that the market leader has been converted to Nasdaq, the situation remains to be seen. In particular, given that the S&P 500 is technically below the critical level of the 20th and 50th, we should pay attention to next week.
Given that a large number of important data will be released next week, including employment reports, that can move the Fed's policy, it is expected that there will be enough catalysts to show the market's direction. Realizing that they are getting older these days, the beast's temperament to watch the game with only stocks gradually eases, and they pay more attention to risk management.
Therefore, we exclude unnecessary special agreements among insurance products and rebalance to compensate for insufficient coverage.
You may wonder, but even within the stock portfolio, we need to take some of the Low correlation and low beta strategies to maintain green performance in the event of unexpected external variables.
In today's downtrend, the absolute performance of individual stocks with corporate action, such as Chinese stocks, gold, and falls, turnaround, mergers and acquisitions, is noticeable.
It is sustainable only when it is compressed as much as possible but dispersed as much as possible within it.