2024. 2. 26. 07:22ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
Interesting statistics...
1. The median household income in Korea is 40 million won per year.
(The median income per person is about 2.23 million won per month)
2. Mid-ranking test takers' CSAT scores are 5th grade.
3. Based on regular admission, the 5th grade can be applied to Shinhan University, Samyuk University, and Kangwon University.
4. Only about 5% of all examinees go to the so-called prestigious university, "Seoyeon High School and the University of 10 yuan."
5. About 11% of test takers go to "in Seoul."
6. About 65% of the Korean population lives in non-metropolitan cities.
7. The number of theaters in Busan is only one-third that of Seoul.
8. The total number of theaters in Chungcheong-do and Jeolla-do is less than that of Seoul.
9. Thirty-two to four percent of the working population are non-regular workers.
10. More than half of Seoul citizens do not have their own homes.
11. Korea ranks among the top nine to 10 in terms of economic power.
(This is a story from the past and fell to 13th place under the Yoon regime)
12. Koreans have the highest life expectancy in the world.
Around this time
"Anyone who was born and raised in Seoul, entered In-Seoul University, got a science and engineering/professional job, married a spouse in the same industry, survived his job until his mid-50s, got a house in Seoul, and started to get a job."
The top percentage in our society is about to be determined.
Although it cannot be simplified statistically, it is of course advantageous in society if you are a man, moreover.
Anyway, like, "There's no problem around me."
"I'm just normal"
It is a word that must be used very carefully.
- ☆ JSK and Stock Idol ☆
(JSK weekly market brief <Week 5, Week 9, 2024> from the trend-following industry trading method) When it is necessary to take a step back for 2 steps forward, what is our response?
★ Leading industries last week (based on market share)
Rising industries: Low PBR (banking (local), securities, holding company, life insurance) VS IT services, robots, Bayo, nuclear power plants,
Pressed neck industries: (Increasing) Defense, pharmaceutical, electric vehicles (materials), automobiles, semiconductors (HMB, fabless), Internet, / (rebounding)
Rebounding industries: medical devices, XR, software,
Short-term trends: construction machinery, chemistry, gaming,
★ Market arrangement last week
The first day of last week marked the second day of a surge in low PBR stocks, gains in semiconductors, defense, and other industries, as well as a sharp rise in Kodak, with both markets closing strong, especially the exchange breaking through the long stretch for the first time in 3009 years with further gains in the index.
However, from Tuesday, sales of low PBR stocks were released, and sales for short-term gains were released, which went through an exchange-based volume digestion process, and Wednesday saw semiconductor stocks pour out shelf-young supplies to increase volatility due to the release of Nvidia's earnings.
Nevertheless, the market was differentiated from the market due to the high expectations for Hannik's HBM and the supply and demand of big brothers from some equipment owners. Immediately after Nvidia's earnings announcement, the semiconductor industry was again struggling Thursday due to the surge in the futures market.
However, Friday, the next day, is starting to adjust the pace as profit-taking due to a surge for the second day, but the semiconductor industry needs a selective approach to stocks. (Further explanation from the industry)
Some big tech stocks, such as Misei Friday and Nvidia, have closed strongly, but profit-taking sales are continuing to be released, and the stocks at the bottom are subject to a widespread adjustment tax, which may also require the domestic market to digest sales.
However, despite rising 20-year U.S. bid rates on Thursday and no revised view of the direction of interest rates due to the release of FOMC minutes, it seems to be a positive factor to fall again without breaking the 4.30% line, which had been a long-term reversal of declines.
★ Countermeasures for this week and strategies by industry
This week, most index-affected industries, including low PBR, need to digest their sales (detailed in the industry part) due to the expansion of short-term gains. As a result, selective attempts to rise in industries are possible, but the overall index movement is likely to show adjustments within the pressed range.
In addition, due to the possibility of adjusting the index, some industries are likely to proceed with long-term adjustments, so please check and respond to the trend change by industry rather than responding to the clumsy adjustment tax.
As a result, this week requires a calm response to adjust the weight of each industry in the port for the next opportunity through a cash-guaranteed strategy for sectors that need additional profit and some short-term adjustments within the medium-term wave.
In addition, the electric vehicle sector, where some stocks are rebounding to 61.8% of the long-term decline despite the long-term decline, will be an alternative to paying attention from the second half of the week.
★ It's defense. It was the next industry after semiconductors that heaven helped. I thought it would go a little slower last week due to low PBR and semiconductor industries, but stocks are also unpredictable due to the unexpected passage of the mercury law and the improvement in supply and demand of big brothers. Haha
Looking back, in mid-to-late January, the defense team took it away with tears, which gave them a better opportunity. In other words, it has been proven that the long-term one-wave adjustment of performance and supply and demand must be rebooked at the 50% line, and in the process, it seems that it was an opportunity to upgrade how to approach and when to buy it.
Anyway, from LIG Nex1 in early February, I slightly deviated from the long-term 50% push neck line and turned it back to 38% and pressed it. Since the 3rd day, I have increased the proportion of defense stocks such as Hanwha and Air since then, I have increased the proportion of defense stocks quite a lot, and they are coming in until last week.
However, even in the same industry, there is now a wide variety of stocks. Let's take a brief look at each representative stock in the concept of a wave.
It's Hanwha Aerospace. The long-term adjustment also finished at the strongest 38%. It started later than LIG Nex1, but thanks to this, it's taking the most weight. I was a little disappointed that last week's market price was pushed down.
However, personally, it is one of the most anticipated events, so I have increased it if I increase my weight, but I am not thinking of selling it. This is because, by my standards, I think it is 2 of 1 of the medium-term 1 of the long-term 2 waves. However, there is a possibility that this child can also go directly into the medium-term adjustment here because the market price of the friend who is going into the medium-term adjustment is coming out
However, it seems that there is still one more final wave left for the 2 para adjustment. Even if this is also completed, the current section is medium-term 1, so if additional waves are formed, we will trade, but if it does not, we will increase the proportion according to the medium-term trading method.
Anyway, I'm holding out thinking about the second wave of the mid-term market, the last flame after the mid-term adjustment. Even considering various trading methods such as the long-term equal ratio and the re-breakthrough of reverse body, it seems like it's time for patience. Finally, I'm thinking about when to add more, but the supply and demand of institutions seems to be slightly missing, so I'm going to check the market price next Tuesday (the 5th bar of adjustment) and respond. This is because it seems to be a place to decide whether to go up to 3 or mid-term adjustment.
It's LIG Nex1. Originally, the stock was the first to move after the long-term adjustment, but the reverse body went into the second. I think the current section is the first medium-term adjustment of the long-term 2 wave, as it deviated from the short-term trend after the rising 3 wave formed.
However, since the range of the long-term wave was quite large, and the recent medium-term wave also renewed its reverse, we expect the second medium-term wave to come out after the medium-term adjustment. We plan to respond to the medium-term adjustment by 38% to 50%.
First of all, we also reduced the proportion before and after the high point just before the Thursday rise to three waves and waited for a mid-term adjustment, but it's very volatile. Friday, a day later, we tried to enter the 38% line of the mid-term to KRW 13.1 million, and we plan to increase the proportion further to the 50% line. After that, as you all know, we will respond with a mid-term trading method and proceed with the basic trading plan until the trend changes and the peak of the reversal until the fire burns.
However, my friends can still see it as a two-way coordination, so if there is a situation that reverses the trend of the division of labor at any time, we plan to increase the proportion further, but if this adjustment is a mid-term adjustment, it can take about 10 bags, so let's calmly respond further
It's Korea Aerospace. There was a shift in the trend of long-term adjustment, but the wave width of the medium-term wave was weak. Nevertheless, it is not negligible that even if the medium-term wave 1 was weak in the process of returning after the adjustment, it is quite often explosive in the medium-term wave 2 (usually, the wave width is weak in the medium-term wave 1 so that me or individuals sometimes burst lol) After all, this kid seems to have the same wave as Hanwha Air, but the medium-term wave 2 may be larger than expected, so I keep some weight and keep a close eye on it.
It's a Hyundai Rotem. Those who fall out of the long-term adjustment in reverse arrangement can't climb very coolly. When other friends went, the waves made it difficult for people to go, and the mercury law passed and the maximum benefit increased significantly. As expected, it's been teased.
In other words, as you can see from the long-term return wave, the market ended last Thursday at just over 61.8% of the long-term return. Again, it's hard to be ignorant of the first long-term return of 61.8%. Especially for large-cap stocks.
The same was true of this child. However, considering the wave waves at the bottom, there are two mid-term waves, so if you approach it poorly, the probability of success seems relatively low. Of course, it would be a different story if one of the big brothers pretends to be crazy and receives supply and demand, but if the normal waves are high, it seems that we have to come down to the two beekeeping, and the timing should be at least 2W or more.
Like the trend these days, even in the same industry, they all have different gukbap scenes
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