Variables: Individual investor optimism at unusually high levels

U.S. stocks rise on backlash buying on solid investor sentiment

The U.S. stock market started higher on the back of a sharp decline ahead of the previous day's close. In particular, other semiconductor stocks led the rise as Micron (+8.63%) surged after the earnings announcement. In addition, optimism in individual investor sentiment reached its highest level since April 2021, leading to a rebound in the stock market. Of course, in the second half of the market, the fall was reduced due to the weakening of the over-reflected interest rate cut issue and the rise in government bond rates. However, the rebound continued due to strong investor sentiment and the market closed higher again (Dow +0.87%; Nasdaq +1.26%; S&P 500 +1.03%; Russell 2000 +1.73%; and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +2.77%)

* Variables: Individual investor optimism at unusually high levels

The U.S. GDP growth figure for the third quarter was lowered from a revised 5.2 percent to 4.9 percent. It is estimated that consumer spending has been revised significantly from 3.6 percent to 3.1 percent. Retail contributed 1.36 percentage points, and inventory contributions rose as much as 1.74 percentage points. The fourth quarter is expected to slow down as the Atlanta Fed predicts a 2.7 percent GDP Now, but it is positive for the stock market in that it remains solid. New unemployment claims rose slightly from 0.30 million to 0.25 million, but they are still in the early 200,000 cases. Employment has continued to remain solid, with confidence flowing into the economy

Of course, the ISM manufacturing index, which will be released on January 2, is also expected to shrink due to the sluggish regional manufacturing index, with the Philadelphia Fed index slowing down significantly from -5.9 to -10.5. On top of that, the U.S. economic leading index in November remains in negative territory, and concerns about the U.S. economy persist. Only the stock market contributed to the rise in detail, but most of the leading indicators were negative, meaning that there is a lack of economic growth momentum

However, it is noteworthy that the index for individual investor sentiment predicted the stock market to rise in the coming six months to 52.9%, exceeding the historical average of 37.5%. This is the highest level since April 2021, which is unusually high. The market rise is estimated to be due to the inflow of rebound buying. However, there is still a possibility of increased volatility as the unusually high level of optimism could weaken if the economy contracts in the future. Considering this, continuous risk management is necessary

* Features: Strong semiconductor industry

Micron (+8.63%) surged on the back of solid earnings and guidance. This led to expectations for the semiconductor industry, which led to strength in semiconductor-related stocks such as NVIDIA (+1.83%), AMD (+3.28%), Intel (+2.88%), Broadcom (+1.52%), AMAT (+2.85%), RAM Research (+2.91%), TSMC (+2.51%) and ASML (+3.52%). However, some stocks have limited their gains due to sell-offs stemming from gains. As a result, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.77%. Related stocks such as Pfizer (+2.46%) and Moderna (+5.77%) were bullish on the news of the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S

Tesla (+2.98%) rose on news of Cashwood's first stock purchase in eight months. Used car maker CarMax (+5.18%) was bullish on good earnings and the news of a resumption of its share buyback program. Cruise company Carnival (+6.20%) was bullish on better-than-expected earnings and strong demand outlook. Related companies such as Royal Caribbean (+5.22%) also rose, while travel companies such as Booking Holdings (+1.45%) and Expedia (+4.08%) also gained ground. Spotify (+2.19%) was bullish on Pivotal Research, which raised its investment opinion and target price based on a surge in net subscribers.

Apple (-0.08%) surged this year, but fell on the analysis that there was no new growth engine. In fact, there have been no new products since the launch of AirPods in 2016, and although the company is focusing on the service sector recently, meaningful growth in related sales is not visible yet, and concerns are rising that it could fall behind in the AI industry

Media companies Paramount Global (-2.77%) and Warner Bros (-1.46%) were sluggish after the news that they started preliminary negotiations for a merger. BlackBerry (-12.68 percent), which turned into a cybersecurity firm, plunged after the company announced weaker-than-expected sales guidance. Paycheck (-7.01 percent), a pay system services software company, also declined due to weaker-than-expected earnings results. ADP (-1.40 percent) also declined.

* Seoul stocks: Stocks open higher

The MSCI Korea Index ETF is 1.58%, the MSCI Emerging Index ETF is 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is 2.77%, the Russell 2000 Index is 1.73%, the Dow Transportation Index is also up 1.69%, and the Eurex KOSPI200 futures are also up 0.46%. Reflecting the results of these indices, the KOSPI is expected to start up around 0.7%. The NDF dollar/won exchange rate for one month is 1,295 won, reflecting this, the dollar/won exchange rate is expected to fall by 10 won, which is positive for foreign supply and demand.

The previous day, the Korean stock market continued to weaken due to the fall in the U.S. stock market, but the fall was reduced due to policy effects such as easing of requirements for major shareholders and strong investor sentiment. Supply and demand factors such as foreigners buying a net 200 billion won Samsung Electronics are also affected. As the U.S. stock market remains solid, the Korean stock market is expected to strengthen today following the reduction of the previous day's fall. However, fluctuations are expected due to changes in individual stock groups rather than active moves due to the large number of wait-and-see measures ahead of the holiday.

* FICC: Treasury yields strong, dollar weak

International oil prices fell as Angola announced its withdrawal from OPEC, highlighting signs of cracks in OPEC. On top of that, the dollar's weakness is also affected. On the other hand, natural gas surged in the 5% range as inventories fell more than expected. European natural gas also rose around 3%

Gold and silver are strong on the strength of the dollar despite rising interest rates on government bonds. Copper and tin rose on falling inventories, while zinc and lead fell on rising inventories. Wheat rose on the back of a weaker dollar, while copper and other crops weakened

The dollar has left behind its recent strength and weakened due to an influx of re-interpretations of Fed policy. The pound weakened sharply against the dollar based on the previous day's slowdown in prices, but today it strengthened, with some reversals flowing in. The yen was volatile before and after the BOJ monetary policy meeting, but today its strength expanded based on the weak dollar and the narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap.

Treasury bond interest rates are on standby for the PCE price index, rising due to a return from the recent decline. In early trading, it fell, noting that downward pressure on prices was increasing, but the return was introduced due to expectations for a soft landing in the economy and excessive reaction to the FOMC, expanding the scope after the turn of the rise