2024. 2. 7. 03:25ใU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
๐Where is the high point of the Dow Nasdaq?
โ ๏ธ Key Issues:
1. "There is no need to raise interest rates anymore," Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said. Harker said cutting interest rates would eventually be important, but insisted the Fed did not need to move immediately.
2. According to Bloomberg, the sharp decline in the market the previous day (20th, local time) was attributed to the so-called "ODTE option" that bet on a short-term decline in the market, and a huge amount of put option trading triggered stock dumping.
3. Leading U.S. chipmaker Micron gave a strong second-quarter fiscal outlook, triggering a broad market rally. Micron expects to benefit from higher prices from next year to 2025 and said industrial prices have reached a strong inflection point.
โ๏ธ Asset Market Trends:
The New York Stock Exchange starts higher with Micron's positive outlook, with Fed interest rate cuts and growth expectations maintained despite a sharp decline following the previous day's dumping. (Dow +0.43%, S&P 500 +0.52% and Nasdaq +0.67%)
Treasury yields remained weak as market expectations for a rate cut stabilized. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly from 3.849% to 3.842%. The dollar fell, weighed down by the euro, pound, and yen's combined strength.
International oil prices turned downward as U.S. crude oil inventories rose more than expected despite concerns over logistical disruptions in the Suez Canal following disputes in the Middle East. Crude oil fell 1.8 percent to 72 dollars per barrel. Brent crude fell 1.5 percent to 78 dollars per barrel. Gold and silver remained weak despite the dollar's weakness.
๐ฐ Today's Characteristics
Micron (MU): Memory chipmaker Micron expects to "benefit from higher prices" next year and through 2025, as it reports better-than-expected second-quarter revenue forecasts. Shares jumped more than 5% on Micron's announcement that hinted at a recovery in the semiconductor market. ๐ ITK's Word of the Day
The Dow closed lower for the first time, leaving behind a record nine-day winning streak. In particular, the Dow and S&P 500 closed the five-day flat lower for the first time since the November rally began.
It's a price action that means a pullback has begun in the short term. The VIX has also started to rebound from its historical low of 12. As it has been so overbought, it is expected to play a positive role in the market, which will take off much of the heat.
However, since there is so much positive momentum and there is no clear negative factor to suppress the market, it is expected to end at the simple full-back level for now.
As Santa Rally seems to have already begun, this full-back is expected to be a buying opportunity for companies that investors have been watching.
The indicators released today are also positive. Inflation indicators in Britain and Germany show that the broader global de-inflation trend is moving faster than expected.
Commerzbank's response is that there is more evidence that global inflation is starting to collapse. Goldman Sachs also evaluates that there is a risk that deflation will proceed more steeply than expected in its forecast for next year.
Now the market is holding out for a bigger rate cut. The good thing is that the rate cut is likely not a response to the recession.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, released today, showed a sharp improvement in December and that consumers are beginning to respond positively to the downward trend in prices.
Of course, the positive trend in the market is likely to continue, given that this is a reliable leading indicator of the possibility of a soft or non-landing of the economy in 2024.