Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, who foresaw the 1987 crash, has a look at

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, who foresaw the 1987 crash, has a look at current U.S. stocks:

"If you buy an S&P at 22x PER now, the expected return in 10 years is negative. That's how history shows it."

Rising prices and building values are different. Next to the highest price ever, the worst entry price ever is being made at the same time.

Jones's diagnosis is nailed in numbers. The stock market capitalization is 252% of GDP. Just before the 1929 crash, 65% was there, 85% to 90% was there in 1987, and the dot-com peak was 170% in 2000. It is now beyond the peak of all bubbles. If the average 10-year regression occurs here, it falls by 30% to 35%, and a 35% loss above 252% is an inverse effect equivalent to 80% to 90% of GDP.

The chain doesn't stop there. 10% of tax revenue is capital gains, and when that goes to zero, the deficit explodes and the bond market shakes. In addition, the proportion of private equity funds in the institution's portfolio has doubled from 7% to 16% in 2008. Liquidity is much shallower than then, but leverage is deeper. This means that overvaluation is not just a high price, but a fault line across the system.

Here's why Bitcoin is a different asset. The risk for stocks is that their valuation goes back to the average. There's a baseline called PER, and the further you go above it, the more future earnings lean negative. Bitcoin has no average multiplex to go back, no new shares to dilute. The nature of the risk itself is different.

So here's the real asymmetry. The 100-year average looks good because it includes the days when PERs were 6, 7, and 8, and only those who bought it at that time had the profit. Those who are now at the highest price based on that average tend to be dragged down to the average, not the average. When a proven prophet says negative, what he needs to hear is not the price, but the point of entry.