2026. 6. 21. 01:44ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
1. Korea is recording a record-high trade surplus. It will be worth 150 trillion won by May, and it will increase even more in the second half of the year due to semiconductors. The GNI will also increase tremendously because of the trade surplus caused by the rise in the sales price of exports. The nominal GNI in the first quarter was the largest in decades at 17%.
2. The large surpluses earned by exporters naturally lead to an increase in national income through bonuses for executives and employees, increased employment, and increased dividends.
3. On top of that, the number of tourists is also at an all-time high. Increased sales of luxury goods and department stores are natural. This is why stock prices of department store companies such as Shinsegae and Hyunbaek have fluctuated. (Of course, there are negative effects from rising housing prices and stock prices this year.)
4. However, from the perspective of the domestic industry, it is still very cold. Although the root cause is the long-term loss of competitiveness, one of the reasons why Homeplus and JoongAng Ilbo are failing at this point is that domestic demand is in a mess. Small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed businesses in which the majority of the people work are only cold wind, and startups preparing for the next generation of innovation are cold rice, except for some AI industries. At this rate, the enormous income that increases eventually sparks real estate prices, and money is circulating in department stores and some luxury industries and ends.
5. In this situation, no one believes that increasing or changing real estate taxes will solve the problem. Of course, the government can expect to spray cold water so that less attention is paid to real estate, but tax alone cannot prevent it in a situation where GNI, which will be a spark, continues to increase. Increasing supply is easy to say, too long, and even more so, it is a way to increase the concentration of real estate in the Seoul metropolitan area. (If you look at the rise in apartment prices in Dongtan right now, you don't have to see what will happen when Samjeon, Knicks and other exporters give bonuses, etc.)
6. Tax policies and supply measures are both required. If this is completely denied, short-term measures themselves are impossible. However, before export growth returns to income in earnest next year, the beginning of a fundamental solution should be presented and implemented.
7. There is also a policy that it would be better to push public enterprises to the provinces, but this is also a solution to the level of blood in the head.
8. The key point is that jobs in stable and good private companies should be provided to the provinces, and that process should be resolved with people who challenge not only large companies but also innovative startups. Rather than policies pushed out by the metropolitan area, the "policy that makes you want to go to the provinces" has no choice but to lower the pressure on the metropolitan area.
9. Even if there is no area comparable to Seoul's infrastructure, and the salary is high in the countryside, who admires the life of gathering men in rural dormitories and drinking alcohol every day? The factory is in the south right now, but all major research institutes are in the Seoul metropolitan area, so there will be a question about how to solve the problem of talent. However, all these problems are, after all, 'because I didn't pay enough'.
10. For example, if a large Korean company acquires a local innovative start-up and keeps it there, it exempts a large company from the designation of a large company if a mid-sized company acquires a local start-up, exempts all affiliates of the large company from regulation-free if it acquires a local start-up in a regulated-free area, or if a local start-up is acquired by a large company and continues to work in the area, it can be done if you really want to do it properly, such as exempting all employees' stock options from taxes or earned income taxes. The same can be seen for living infrastructure. For example, if you create a special industrial zone in a local area and lack medical infrastructure, would you really not want to go if you said that you would exempt all essential medical businesses from income tax for 10 years and the state would prevent all medical lawsuits?
11. There are numerous legal problems, and enormous issues such as regional discrimination and equity issues for businesses that do not fall under the category of innovative companies will emerge in preferential disputes, but it is not enough to choose a region and fail to do a pilot project. (The ratio of high school students in the metropolitan area to regular recruitment of local national universities in 26 years is close to 30 percent. It is estimated that the students applied after looking at recruiting local talent from public enterprises in provincial areas. They think who will go there, but if they have enough incentives, they will also go to provincial areas.)
12. It could have been a good alternative to MoneyMove if the stock market was steadily rising slowly and surpassed the 5,000 mark by 2030, as the government had aimed. However, because of AI and semiconductors, the stock market has risen so high that it is showing excessive volatility to become an investment alternative. Given this, it is nonsense to hope that the increase in income, which is already expected to increase from the second half of this year, will not go to real estate, especially in the Seoul metropolitan area. Right now, measures to be partially mitigated by tax law revision and increased supply must be found, but long-term direction and vision must also be demonstrated so that the public is not overwhelmed by real estate.
13. If you build some industrial complexes in the provinces and say, "I'll reduce electricity bills there," there will be little change except for moving companies that need to be wary of the government. Even if the government has called for revitalization of local areas over the past 15 years, it proves very well that all the key research institutes of local conglomerates have flocked to the metropolitan area, and the problem that local startups are headquartered in provincial areas and all major manpower work in Seoul's "office" is not solved. Whatever it may be, during the second half of this year, an unconventional policy alternative to this scheduled problem should come out and become noisy over the debate over the alternative. At that rate, most of them will not even be able to try in the end for one reason or another, but if they fail to find a breakthrough here, the surge in real estate in the metropolitan area will be set after next year. Tax revenues, including corporate taxes, will also increase next year to an all-time high, but it is not just a fund, but it is also a form of public welfare support fund
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