Iran wins, US loses: US-Iran ceasefire talks mean

Iran wins, US loses: US-Iran ceasefire talks mean

The armistice agreement reached by the U.S. and Iran on the 15th is neither a complete end to the war nor a peace. It is only a 60-day truce, and it is close to a deal that encapsulates the strategic defeat of the U.S. and Iran's victory.

When the United States and Israel launched indiscriminate airstrikes against Iran, the war was sparked. The official war goals included Iran's regime change, unconditional surrender, the removal of its nuclear program, and the destruction of missile power. However, none of the agreements announced on this day even mention these goals.

There are actually two main points of the agreement. It is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of nuclear negotiations. It is hard to avoid criticism that the U.S. and Israel blocked and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which had passed without any problems even before the outbreak of war.

President Trump boasts of having a "great deal" with Iran, but it is hard to understand how restoring the strait where crude oil carriers used to freely go had it not started the war in the first place.
This is why even Republicans in the United States say, "If this is the case, why did you go to war?"

While President Trump has made the elimination of Iran's nuclear materials and the permanent abandonment of its nuclear weapons development the core goals of the war, the deal will only discuss those issues again after the Strait of Hormuz is restored. From the standpoint of the United States, virtually nothing has been gained from the deal.

If Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear weapons program and abandon its second-phase negotiations, will the U.S. invade Iran again? And will it re-block the Strait of Hormuz?

In reality, the United States has no power to attack Iran again and force it to surrender militarily. The United States would have continued the war without accepting such a meager agreement if it had such a military force.

However, the United States has already run out of capacity to continue the war.
The most decisive factor is the lack of interceptors to effectively respond to Iran's hypersonic missiles.

Moreover, China monopolizes rare earths, which are essential for the production of interceptor missiles, and China does not sell them to the United States. The U.S. has reportedly already exhausted two-thirds of its inventory of interceptor missiles that respond to hypersonic and supersonic missiles in its war with Iran.

As the remaining interceptor missiles have to be stockpiled for emergency purposes in case of future military conflicts with China or Russia, there is no room to continue the war in Iran anymore.

Because of this, it is difficult for the United States to supply Israel with additional offensive weapons, including interceptors, and even Israel, which opposed the ceasefire, was reluctantly forced to follow the US ceasefire line.

The biggest driver of Iran's victory is its hypersonic missile power, which exceeds that of the United States.
Iran has already advanced hypersonic missiles that the United States has not yet deployed to the mass production and field deployment stage. In this war, Iran destroyed major facilities through Israel's air defenses and devastated US military bases in pro-American countries in the Gulf. It is virtually impossible to intercept Iran's hypersonic missiles with existing military technology.

Israel strongly demanded that President Trump also include Iran's ballistic missile issue in the ceasefire negotiations, but Trump removed the issue from the negotiation agenda because he was well aware that the negotiations themselves could not be established in that case.

Iran's asymmetric military strength is fundamental to Iran's ballistic missiles, which are strategically more important than nuclear weapons. Through this war, Iran has confirmed that ballistic missiles have a more direct impact on national survival than nuclear facilities. This is because they have gained hands-on experience that hypersonic ballistic missiles can precisely strike U.S. military facilities and strategic targets.

The nuclear issue is the ultimate line of defense that cannot be compromised even if it is open to negotiation, and missiles are now the core asset of Iran's security strategy. As a result, the United States virtually abandoned the ballistic missile issue while only confirming principled discussions on the nuclear issue.

This proves a clear U.S. strategic defeat.

Interactive assistance from Russia and China was also crucial in boosting Iran's missile power to formidable levels. Iran's air defenses and missile systems have reached significant levels amid technical cooperation between Russia and China. Iran has introduced China's independently developed Beitou (North Korea) satellite navigation system to maximize the precision strike capability of ballistic missiles, and Russia has provided Iran with satellite coordinates of U.S. military bases in the Gulf region to enable precision strikes.

In the early stages of the war, China waited and waited, believing that Iran would soon collapse due to an onslaught of the United States, but as Iran lasted longer than expected, it began to provide full-fledged support. Additionally, Pakistan, which brokered negotiations between Iran and the United States, reportedly delivered the details of the negotiations to China in real time.

The United States' military limitations were explicitly exposed by this war. Through the war with Iran, the United States, which once believed that it could project military power anywhere it wanted, has demonstrated clear limitations such as a lack of Patriot missiles stock, limited Tomahawk production capacity, weak rare earth supply chains, and weakening the military industry's base.

The Gulf alliance system of the United States was also severely affected by the agreement. Pro-U.S. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE suffered massive damage as they were targeted by Iranian missile attacks rather than aided in their defense. This is why these countries did not unconditionally cooperate with U.S. military operations.

The Gulf states are within Iran's missile range and, above all, the Strait of Hormuz, have a critical drawback. The Gulf monarchy, not the United States, suffers the most if the war escalates. As a result, they are beginning to attempt to maintain a certain distance from the United States, signaling a fundamental change in the Middle East order.

The bigger change is that China and Russia are becoming strong backbones for Iran. It is no coincidence that Pakistan has taken a mediating role in the agreement. China has already achieved reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran