Two types of complex games are playing at the

2025. 1. 4. 18:11U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

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Two types of complex games are playing at the same time. I don't know how to do it, but let me summarize what I understand.

The first game is for the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit and the police to execute arrest warrants issued by the court.

The Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit, which had never played such a real game, came out empty-handed after drinking water at the security office guarding the official residence.

Why didn't the security service step down when there was an arrest warrant.

The targets of investigation stipulated by the Corruption Investigations Unit Act are 1) abandonment of duties, 2) abuse of authority, 3) illegal abuse, and 4) assault.

Insurrection is not included in this. Therefore, the Yoon Suk Yeol claims that the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit cannot investigate the crime of rebellion in the first place. (Investigation of the crime of rebellion must be conducted by the police.)

On the other hand, the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit believes that the "related crimes" of abuse of authority include rebellion.

Who should clean up the traffic when the two sides are making conflicting claims? It's a court.

The competent Western District Court ruled in favor of the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit by issuing an arrest warrant. It is the judgment of the judge in charge of a warrant in the Western District Court that the crime of rebellion is within the scope of the investigation by the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit.

However, disputes are expected to continue in the future. If the security agency blocks another attempt by the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit to execute additional arrest warrants, it is for the same reason. The Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit will skip the execution of arrest warrants if it is difficult to do so, and immediately move on to the request for arrest warrants.

The second game is played at the Constitutional Court, which deals with whether to remove Yoon Suk Yeol from office. In other words, it is an impeachment trial.

The key is for the Constitutional Court to dismiss the president, who is obliged to protect the Constitution, as he violated the Constitution and destroyed the constitutional order. The parties involved in the game are the National Assembly, led by opposition parties, and the Yoon Suk Yeol.

Yoon Suk Yeol wants to delay the game as much as possible. Lee Jae-myung, chairman of the main opposition Democratic Party, is most likely to win the election if the presidential election is held immediately. However, he was sentenced to one year in prison and two years of imprisonment for violating the Public Official Election Act in the first trial.

The appeals court is scheduled to proceed only two months after the first trial ruling was made in November last year. The first trial of the second trial begins on January 23. It is quite fast. If the second trial is convicted and the Supreme Court makes a final ruling, Lee Jae-myung cannot run for president.

That's why the Yoon Suk Yeol and the ruling party want the impeachment trial to be extended as much as possible. The main court's judgment is decided by the attendance of more than seven judges and more than six in approval. Why not? The two justices' terms expire in mid-April.

The reason for somehow delaying the appointment of the three judges elected by the National Assembly was the intention of not meeting the quorum of the main judges. Two of the three justices on the Assembly's part have barely been appointed, with the Constitutional Court having eight out of nine justices.

The key now is whether the delayed action will work as intended by the Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon Suk Yeol's strategy is two tracks. First, preventing the court from meeting the quorum of judges, and second, whether it is guilty of civil war or not.

The first has already been explained, so let's consider the second.

The National Assembly wants to wrap up the impeachment trial as soon as possible and remove Yoon Suk Yeol from office. It is okay to take your time to argue for treason and foreign exchange charges.

On the contrary, the Yoon Suk Yeol wants the impeachment trial to proceed step by step with a fierce battle. We hope that external factors such as the confirmation of the Lee Jae-myung second trial ruling and the expiration of the term of the two judges of the Constitutional Court will act as variables while gathering supporters and cracking down on the house.

While the National Assembly is making a quick decision and the Yoon Suk Yeol is making a delayed decision, the National Assembly made a strong move at the second hearing at the Constitutional Court today (January 3). Among the reasons for impeachment, he dropped the crime of rebellion under the criminal law. "The facts that violate the crime of rebellion under the criminal law and the facts that violate the Constitution are the same," he said.

Excluding the crime of rebellion is Yoon Suk Yeol's intention to completely block delayed operation. In order to determine whether a person is guilty of rebellion, the government should guarantee all the participants in the rebellion have the right to object and verify all kinds of evidence. Since there are more than one or two participants, the hearing becomes very long.

The Constitutional Court Act allows the trial proceedings to be suspended if the criminal proceedings are carried out for the same reason as the impeachment trial. The Yoon Suk Yeol must be investigated for treason under the criminal law by the Senior Civil Servant Corruption Investigations Unit and put to trial soon. Then, the court will put a brake on the simultaneous trial for treason.

For this reason, the National Assembly completely removed the crime of rebellion. In summary, violations of the crime of rebellion can be handled by both criminal law and constitution. If the Constitutional Court deals with both at the same time, the trial will be very long. Looking at the latter, the ruling comes out quickly because it is a simple case. So the National Assembly dropped the former, and the Constitutional Court accepted it.

Naturally, they were refuted by the power of the Yoon Suk Yeol and the people. Since it is a confession that it is wrong to include the crime of rebellion in the grounds for the impeachment motion in the first place, the National Assembly should make another decision on the impeachment motion.

Now the ball is in the Constitutional Court. Whose side will the Constitutional Court take? First of all, it seems to be in favor of the National Assembly.

Today, Yoon Suk Yeol was stabbed in the back of the head. The Constitutional Court announced that it would end preparations for impeachment proceedings and hold a total of five hearings thereafter (*14, 1/16, 1/21, 1/23, 2/4)

The two sides will have five battles. After that, the Constitutional Court will make a final ruling, which is expected to be as early as mid-February or late February. It is more likely that the dismissal of the Yoon Suk Yeol will be confirmed in mid-February.

When Yoon Suk Yeol strongly protested against the National Assembly's exclusion of treason, the Constitutional Court dismissed the possibility that the trial process would be fully considered. This will also benefit the National Assembly.

There are many pechin who are angry and lethargic because the arrest warrant has not been executed, but the situation is not necessarily that bad. You shouldn't relax, but you don't have to be too frustrated.

In addition, it is a summary of the core like a watermelon. Please refer to the analysis of legal experts. I attached a commentary by lawyer Choi Kang-wook in the comment.

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