Nate Silver has made such a prediction early on,

Nate Silver has made such a prediction early on, saying, "My intuition is Trump, but it's a close call." There are some parts I disagree with, but I think it contains some important insights. I translated it roughly and added paraphrases and explanations. Another story is a slow letter in the morning.

24 reasons why Nate Silver says Trump won.

1. The winner-takes-all election system favored Trump. Harris had no strong partisanship with Trump.
2. Inflation was a variable. After hitting 9.1 percentage points in June 2022, it has stabilized to some extent, but prices felt still high. (The aftermath of quantitative easing after the COVID-19 pandemic will likely make Biden or Harris feel unfair.)
3. The economy is not an indicator but a psychology. Corporate profits increased but workers' disposable income remained sluggish. (Actually, indicators are good. It is close to full employment and growth rate is higher than that of Korea.)
4. For Harris, it was a handicap, not a current premium. (A common destiny with Biden, who does well and is reviled.)
5. Populism worked. Hillary Clinton criticized Trump's supporters as "Basket of deplorables," but the fact that they are almost half of the American people should not be overlooked. (The Weird strategy may have failed.)
6. There was a lot of backlash against immigrants. (Trump persistently pushed and Harris was taken away.)
7. Harris did not have an attractive commitment. (Nate Silver didn't even talk about abortion.) (It might have been weak in the first place just to defend against regression, not attack.)
8. There was a great perception that the Democratic Party went too far on issues such as COVID-19, crime, and the walk. (A reaction or bias to excessive political correctness or hypocrisy of progress.)
9. Before the COVID pandemic, there is an illusion that the economy was good during Trump's first three years. The difficult experiences during the COVID pandemic overlap with Biden's administration, so the perception is not good.
10. The Democratic Party did not win votes for blacks and minorities. That did not mean white voters would rally. (Many of the blacks who supported Biden did not support Harris.) (There was also an analysis of white women rallying, but something that needs to be confirmed.)
11. Young men also felt deprived. (A New York Times survey found that 58 percent of men aged 18 to 29 supported Trump. Harris only 37 percent.) The college entrance rate has declined, and people are talking about reverse discrimination. (It seems similar to Korea.)
12. Trump's age didn't matter. With Biden resigning, Harris was the best topic to attack, but she didn't touch it. The media has also seen a significant decline in articles mentioning Trump's age. (Trump may have been caught up in Trump's framing strategy.) (Trump became Biden's age in 2020, but strangely, there was no age story.)
13. There was a lack of preparation. It was less than four months from Biden's resignation to the election. Harris' character was not formed properly.
14. There were also limits to female candidates. Hillary Clinton was also left out of swing voters. (Unfortunately, reality.)
15. The credibility of the media has also plummeted. Many media outlets made up their minds, but it was not very effective. (Reading the New York Times diligently, few turned from Trump to Harris.)
16. Trump was good at making voters think, "Trump is on our side." Harris didn't do that. (In reality, the people who would suffer the most from Trump's election supported Trump. Harris didn't really target them.)
17. The Democratic Party appealed to the college-educated elite, but that may have undermined its scalability. Trump drew support from marginal groups, where the Democratic Party treated them as strange people.
18. The claim that Trump is a serious threat to democracy may not have been conveyed properly. It should have attacked the Jan. 6 issue more effectively.
19. Biden's foreign policy was also difficult to give a good score. War broke out in Ukraine and Gaza, and U.S.-China relations worsened. Immigrants increased.
20. The Israel-Hamas War also divided the Democratic Party's base. The Republican Party had no divisive issues.
21. There were many candidates from the three left-leaning parties. The strong candidate RFK Jr. also supported Trump.
22. Elon Musk and Silicon Valley's rich people supported Trump, pulling out Shy Trumps. Made him feel unashamed to support Trump.
23. The shooting also boosted Trump's favorability. In fact, Trump's favorability rating has increased more than in 2016 and 2022.  
24. Harris was swept away by the atmosphere and failed to present a clear national vision. If the fundamentals were good, it would have been different, but it was not.