2024. 7. 25. 09:29ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
Thanks to Tesla's butterfly effect, today's market will be hit by a typhoon and it will be Black Thursday. You may know everything, so let me tell you something different. The dollar is weakening little by little. In particular, the yen has already fallen from 160 yen to 153 units per dollar. Although Yellen is forcibly preventing the yen from strengthening, it can be said that the prediction of a U.S. interest rate cut, Trump's blatant remarks on the weak dollar, the sale of dollars and the movement of yen carry funds in anticipation of a U.S. economic downturn have begun. I think the yen carry is also taking place in the U.S. and Korean stock markets
The so-called Trump trade is primarily about reviving the U.S. manufacturing industry by simultaneously weakening the dollar, raising tariffs on China and its allies, and lowering corporate taxes. If so, import prices will rise, and products to be manufactured in the United States will of course be more expensive than Chinese products, which will result in inflation. And it is all too obvious that the corporate tax cut will worsen further in the face of a severe fiscal deficit with bonds already issued excessively by Yellen's sister to save Biden. If so, a slight drop in interest rates will be useless, but rather inflation will reappear due to rising domestic commodity prices, which is likely to lead to higher interest rates.
To make Harris president, Alan will continue to overdo her job, which I think will have a negative impact on the economy by coming back to the boomerang no matter who happens to be next. But an election is about standing and winning, and for that to happen, stock price trends in the three months leading up to the election will be important. So she's going to use money-saving strategies, tactics. But I don't think it's going to work anymore.
If the U.S. increases its production, prices rise, and purchasing power decreases, the demand for goods will also decrease, and product investment will not be very attractive. We will consider investing in goods again in anticipation of simple inflation. Money will gradually move as a safe asset, but even if the money that was poured into Magnificent 7 stocks, which were safer than bonds, goes to bonds, if Yellen continues to increase the amount of bonds issued and long-term interest rates are expected to rise, bond investment will not be a good alternative. After all, cash is king, I thought foreign exchange business would be good, so I started investing in foreign exchange again with the rhythm of the past. The yen investment that I bought as if I was holding a cow in the back seems to have succeeded.
The way the U.S. blew its deficit at the expense of Japan, like the Plaza Accord in the past, is not going to work anymore. Well, I don't think you should worry about the U.S. being a gangster. Just as Nixon changed the monetary system from the gold standard to the dollar in violation of the Brandtwood Agreement, we can just cut interest on issued bonds as if we were reforming the currency. This week's market is going as expected, and I'm an optionalityist, but I hope today's expected stock price crash won't hurt many investors. Stockholders, I hope you endure hardships...
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