2024. 7. 8. 05:33ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
Domestic Stock Exchange Replaced Players, What Are Our Responses?
★ Last week's leading industry (based on book value)
Rising industries: Value-ups (banks, insurance, securities, etc.), semiconductors (two-top, some equipment), pharmaceuticals/buyers,
Nulimmok Industry: (Increasing) Some of Joseon and Bangsan
Rebound industries:
Short-term trend departure: cosmetics, food and beverage, shipping, defense parts, general machinery,
★ Last week's market consolidation
Last week, especially on Friday, the KOSPI rose to 2,862 points in just two days after not opening 2,800 points along with the massive gift buying of Kobe. LOL. Which one are you guys? Personally, I'm the latter. (He said he liked it last month, so the sky tells me to be humble.)
This is because the long-term 1st wave and long-term 2nd wave-led industries thought they were going together, so they maintained the port, but the older brothers changed the port from Tuesday, and since they loved only one of them passionately, even though they changed the port, the yield of the existing positions was thrown up, causing damage to the yield.
These days, it's like a circulating medium circulating fast. If you make a mistake for a while, you're in a quagmire. In other words, even if the index goes up, if the weight of the leading industry is not well controlled, it could be meaningless even if the index goes up to 3,000 points. Wow
Still, to summarize calmly, the index has 3 points left to 2,865 points, which is 61.8% of the long-term decline, so it seems that the trend has changed. And the downward trend of the long-term trend has also broken through coolly. It's already 3,000 won, but let's not let our guard down if we go too far. ^^ (The reason is explained by this week's countermeasures.)
Nevertheless, the important thing is what led the market last week. Well, of course, Samjeon. What I'm interested in is Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Samsung SDS, the other IT giants that were sleeping, and I'm going to explain it to you
In addition, value-up, which was the leading industry in the long-term wave, has strongly broken through the trend again due to large-scale improvement in supply and demand from the institution, signaling a change in the industry earlier in the week. (However, these children have a long-term equal ratio, but if any of the older brothers change their mind, they will need to bear the burden.) Especially among these children, I think Samsung C&T is the biggest, and I hope you read it in the industry.
In other words, even the main players are being replaced despite the replacement of players in the market-led industry, so speed games are needed.
However, it is regrettable that many small and medium-sized stocks fail to see the effects of an index rise, which means that individuals' sentiment index declines significantly. Contrary to what people thought about "We Are the World," industries led by long-term 2 groups (Bangsan, Shipbuilding, etc.) and cosmetics, power appliances, food and beverages, which showed sharp increases until last month, seem to have increased their adjustments.
In particular, all stocks are turned around over the weekend. / Except for some stocks of semiconductor equipment, it is rare that there are no stocks alive on the KOSDAQ for such a long time. ... Unlike the rebound in the index, the number of stocks that can be traded has not continued to increase.
The 10-year U.S. fell 7BP and the exchange rate fell, reflecting the slowing job market due to the release of the U.S. Friday and the June employment report, which seems to be favorable to the domestic stock market.
★ This week's countermeasures and strategies by industry
This week, the stock market opened the top box of the index, so we expect further gains to be possible but limited in scope and will respond.
First, as the trend resistance line rises, it forms an early 2,900-point level (similar to Nasdaq), and it seems to be 2-3% based on the index, and even if it breaks through, it will be burdensome for sale anyway if it rises further, so you should see limited short-term additional upside.
Second, trading volume divergence. I don't know if it's a trend or a dress-up or a director general, but usually when a stock price rises, trading volume has to increase, but because of the artificial hand, the trading volume has recently gone up for money, and it's not working. In other words, these limited industries and upward attempts can not go far and reverse the trend, so it may be more efficient to prepare for the next step rather than buying too much. (It depends on your personal preference, but I don't like having lost stocks in my account, and if there is a high probability of losing more than 5%, I don't eat it unless I eat it.)
Maybe if you sell them at a certain price, they can just trickle down and increase volatility. Jap
In addition, even if you look at the industries that drove the index's rise last week, Samjeon (the entry of 90,000 won also has a trend resistance line, and even if you reverse it in the future, it will be reasonable to realize profits in the short term, 4% in the short term, and accounts with high unit prices) + If value-up rises further, a short-term period of breath is needed, so there is a high possibility that short-term pressure will come in through the change of hands by industry (based on 5 bars since Tuesday is the start of Tuesday as of last week).
As a result, value-ups (especially banks and insurance) sell when they rise further, but Samjeon / Samsung Electro-Mechanics / Samsung C&T / Samsung SDS, which formed a new long-term wave last week, may need to check 25 bps for short-term low-cost accounts. (However, accounts with high unit prices need to make decisions based on entering the trading section.)
In addition, semiconductor equipment that was pressed relatively (participated in the trend change mainly after reversing the trend), defense, shipbuilding (which may require a process of rolling back and pressing) can be baton touch
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