It seems that we are finally in the period of rising trend.

2024. 6. 18. 10:47U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

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🖋It seems that we are finally in the period of rising trend.

The S&P 500 is continuing a heated fire, breaking its 30th all-time high this year. Of course, it is too early to say that the euro fluctuations and volatility caused by political uncertainty in Europe are over, but the market seems to be waiting and seeing.

I don't know what the French general election will look like, but the market seems to take positively that there is a growing movement against the far right. The French market is starting to pick up and the dollar is also turning steady again.

The positive thing about today's U.S. stock market is that free consumer goods are gaining strength again. Among consumer goods, free consumer goods mean expectations for U.S. consumer spending and improved profits for companies, which can be seen as a signal in favor of risky assets.

What I've been most concerned about and noticed so far was that the performance of free consumer goods compared to the S&P 500 could lower an important low point. Historically, this level of sluggish performance has been a risk signal to the stock market, so I've been watching it. Fortunately, today, it's showing a strong rebound.

The macro is certainly optimistic, as consumer prices fell faster than expected last week and the Fed also maintained its stance on rate cuts, as prices fell and interest rates showed the possibility of Goldilocks falling.

Now, the market is likely to keep an eye on retail sales announced tomorrow. Since there have been some concerns in the market that the economy will be on a downward curve, the point of view is to see how the market interprets tomorrow's indicators, which are expected to increase slightly compared to April.

As concerns about interest rates were largely resolved through last week's inflation and FOMC meetings, we should see the possibility of interpreting Good News as Good News.

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