Hanmi Semiconductor's Share Price Slips Comment

Hanmi Semiconductor's Share Price Slips Comment
[Small manager of Samsung Securities Semiconductor / Ryu Hyung-geun]

■ Background of the plunge in Korea-U.S. semiconductor shares today

- Shares of Hanmi Semiconductor are down about 9% today.

- Amid intensifying competition for TC Bonder for HBM, concerns are growing that the monopoly power of Korea-U.S. semiconductors in SK Hynix may be undermined.

- According to media reports, Hanwha Precision Machinery and ASM Pacific are currently pushing to supply TC Bonders for HBM to SK Hynix.

■ TC Bonder Market for SK Hynix HBM, What Will Be the Competition Ahead?

1) What is the current market share structure?

- Since the second half of 2023, Korea-U.S. Semiconductor has virtually exclusively supplied TC Bonders for HBM to SK Hynix.

- In the case of HBM, it is a stacked DRAM, and the difficulty of the post-processing is high as the die consisting of 1,024 I/O (input/output terminals) must be stacked without error.

- In the case of Korea-U.S. semiconductors, it is estimated that they actually have a share of more than 90% based on the technical advantage of little vibration during the bonding process and superior productivity compared to competitors' products.

2) Will the monopoly break?

- Attempts to break monopolies are not new in the semiconductor equipment market. From a semiconductor manufacturer's point of view, taking the dual vendor structure can increase the Pruning Power for equipment purchases and provide more stable equipment supply and demand.

- TC Bonder is a key equipment for HBM post-processing. It is important to secure an appropriate yield, and it is also a market with high added value that can be taken. As it is a profitable market, it is natural for several equipment companies to try to enter SK Hynix.

- However, I think it will be difficult to break the monopoly power of Korea-U.S. semiconductors in a short period of time. This is because of the good technology (minimizing equipment vibration, high productivity).

- In 2025, the HBM market will be reorganized around HBM3e. Even if vendors expand, it is rare to immediately apply new equipment to the mass production of top-tier products (HBM3e at this point). This is because it requires a certain period of time to test and verify the performance of the equipment on Legacy products. This characteristic can be strengthened for products such as HBM3e where supply and demand are tight and quality is important.

■ a judgment on stock prices

- As there is growing concern about monopoly damage, it is time for a reversal Catalyst.

- The most powerful Catalyst will eventually be customer expansion. It's early to confirm, but we expect positive changes as we have secured competitiveness in equipment technology.

(2024/06/03 Published Data)