2024. 5. 29. 23:02ㆍ카테고리 없음
U.S. Treasury Markets' "Big Chaos"
In the U.S., short-term interest rates are determined by the central bank, the Fed, but long-term interest rates are determined by the Treasury Department through supply and demand control or market intervention in the government bond market
In particular, the interest rate on mortgage loans, which is directly related to people's livelihoods, is mainly linked to the interest rate on U.S. 10-year long-term government bonds, so the Treasury Department has considered and managed the 10-year long-term government bond rate as the most important
The U.S. Treasury, which has been convinced of its ability to control long-term interest rates through market dominance, has effectively stabilized the U.S. Treasury market by controlling them through direct and indirect influence on a small number of large banks and a small number of hedge funds
On the contrary, less than 10 hedge funds control 70% of U.S. government bond market transactions in the IMF, so the financial stability is greatly concerned, but the U.S. Treasury Department, which has firmly tasted "government-government 治 finance," has been satisfied and complacent with its performance
But in the last three or four years, the size of U.S. government bond issuance has expanded to a truly professional level, and the "abnormal" of fiscal deficits crossing the 7,8% level of GDP despite virtually full employment has become chronic
Finally, not only is the U.S. Treasury losing control of the government bond market, but there are also a number of pessimistic opinions that the market for government bonds beyond the control of the U.S. Treasury could explode and long-term interest rates could soar to 8-10 percent in the future
If the U.S. Treasury Department loses control of the government bond market, it will certainly have a huge backfire on the U.S. economy or the global economy
The future turmoil in the U.S. government bond market seems inevitable just by looking at indicators of the auction status of 20-year U.S. government bonds in February this year