(All numbers are based on Naver

[How far will it go?]
(All numbers are based on Naver Securities, consolidated)

Although both the hairdresser and the director general are slowing down, local shipbuilders have seen their stock prices double over the past three months. Let's take a look at the three-month lows/highest prices of the nation's top three shipbuilders.

- Hanwha Ocean: KRW 29,850 -> KRW 67,700
- Hyundai Heavy Industries: KRW 198,700 -> KRW 346,500
- Samsung Heavy Industries: KRW 9,950 -> KRW 13,660

It is due to improved performance and Trump effect, and I wonder how long this trend will last.

In the case of Hanwha Ocean, which can be called a major stock, the market capitalization is KRW 21 trillion, and the expected sales in 24 years are KRW 10 trillion and the net profit is KRW 31.8 billion. In this case, the EPS is KRW 105, so the PER is about 646. If the order of high-priced LNG carriers, exchange rate effects, falling back prices, checking China, and successful delivery of large offshore plants are all good and the expected sales around 27 trillion won reaches KRW 2 trillion, the PER will fall to about 10.2, and if the net profit reaches KRW 1 trillion, the PER will be about 20.4.

Hanwha Ocean has a record of 15 trillion won in sales and 1 trillion won in net profit in 2012, so it is worth 20 trillion won in sales and 1 trillion won in net profit considering inflation. The key is whether it can achieve 20 trillion won in sales and 2 trillion won in net profit, or 10 percent in net profit, but 10 percent in net profit in a typical large-scale device assembly manufacturing industry is quite difficult.

Currently, shipbuilders' stock prices are expected to improve their earnings over the next three years. Net profit of 1 trillion won, or PER 20, is within the expected range considering the pre-price, cost, and exchange rate of orders placed now. However, in order for the stock price to rise further, the profit ratio must rise by more than 10%, which requires a change in BM. Considering the size and competition of the Chinese shipbuilding industry, it is difficult to increase sales in the merchant marine plant sector, and although the scale is large, the profit rate is low or risky. It will be helpful if we can find growth momentum in the defense industry. We look forward to discovering what new BMs will be able to be found.

In the past, BM invested a lot in Korean factories and people to increase productivity and make a lot of expensive ships. Now, it is evolving in the direction of adding maintenance, product distribution, operating profit, and investment profit beyond establishing a global network production system, securing a production base next to customers, and making and selling ships. In this way, there are quite a few foreign manufacturing companies that have raised the net profit ratio to 15-20%. In order for the Korean shipbuilding industry to succeed in this transition, it is necessary to increase financial capabilities, secure more global cooperation/management/PM capabilities, and break away from the manufacturing-oriented mindset. If so, the PER itself may be recognized as more than 30 rather than the long-term average of 15-20 in Korea.

Everything is like that, but it is up to you to believe that you can do it and work hard in a new and effective way that is different from the past.