United States of America As the U.S. House of Representatives draws up a

2024. 12. 21. 18:45U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

반응형

[Dec. 20 issue in major countries] I'm sending it to you.

# United States of America
As the U.S. House of Representatives draws up a short-term budget plan to extend government spending by three months to avoid a government shutdown, Trump supports it. The bill includes a two-year moratorium on U.S. debt limits and an extension of 110 billion dollars in disaster and agricultural aid. Democrats are unlikely to support the draft bill, criticizing it, noting that "extreme MAGA Republicans cause shutdowns." Trump has advocated for permanent abolition of the cap to avoid debt limit issues since taking office. The Republican minority advantage requires bipartisan support to pass the bill, but the outlook is uncertain.

The U.S. Department of Commerce asks Nvidia to investigate AI chips that have leaked to China, and Nvidia conducts Southeast Asian customer checks with server manufacturers SuperMicro and Dell. The Department of Commerce confirmed cases in which Chinese state agencies secured Nvidia chips despite controls on AI chip exports to China, raising suspicions of falsifying serial numbers that make it difficult to track the chips. Nvidia and Dell require compliance with all export controls and announce measures such as termination of contracts in case of violations. The U.S. government will completely restrict exports of advanced semiconductors and AI chips to China starting in 2022, and extend the ban to low-end chips last year. Nvidia and related companies emphasize compliance with controls and strengthening responses.

# China
CATL has announced plans to set up 1,000 electric vehicle battery replacement stations across China next year, and expand to 10,000 in the long term. Introducing a subscription-type battery service that guarantees up to 3,000km of driving at 369 yuan per month, batteries can be replaced in 100 seconds instead of charging. CATL develops 10 new replacement electric vehicle models, heralding the launch of the first model, and emerging as a contender for Nio. The huge cost of building infrastructure and the need for replacement models are pointed out as challenges, but CATL is working with automakers to break through. At the same time, it is considering a secondary listing to raise up to $5 billion on the Hong Kong stock market, and it is likely to be the largest IPO on the Hong Kong stock market if it is completed in the first half of next year.

# Korea
The U.S. Department of Commerce has signed a direct subsidy contract worth 660 billion won to SK Hynix. The fund will support the construction of a packaging production base for AI memories in Indiana. The project is worth 5.6 trillion won and will mass-produce AI memory products from 2028. SK Hynix plans to contribute to strengthening the supply chain of semiconductors in cooperation with the U.S. government and local partners. The Biden administration focused on strengthening technology leadership by confirming the size of subsidies to major semiconductor companies other than Samsung Electronics. SK Hynix's subsidy size was adjusted to 663.9 billion won, a slight increase from the previous preliminary contract.

The U.S. Congress has bipartisanly proposed the "SHIPS for America Act" bill, which aims to strengthen the shipbuilding industry to gain an upper hand in strategic competition with China. The bill expands the number of U.S. ships shipped to 250 within 10 years, encourages the construction of U.S.-made ships, and imposes high tax rates on repairs abroad. It stipulates that the U.S. and its allies strengthen their maritime transport capabilities, seek ways to cooperate with the shipbuilding industry, and raises the possibility of an opportunity for the Korean shipbuilding industry. In a move to reduce dependence on Chinese shipments to China, it includes imposing tariffs on imports of Chinese goods and expanding the ratio of U.S.-registered ships. The bill will be automatically repealed when the 118th Congress ends, but it is likely to recur in the 119th Congress with bipartisan support.

# Other
The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.25 percent, and Ueda explained that he put the rate hike on hold due to the need for additional information such as wage increase trends in next year's spring tour. He maintained a cautious attitude, saying that he would consider adjusting the key rate once the economic and inflation outlooks are clear. He pointed out the policy uncertainties of the U.S. economy and the incoming Trump administration, and assessed the overseas economic situation with uncertainty. Regarding the weak yen, he stressed that he will keep an eye on the growing impact of the exchange rate on prices. After the rate freeze, the yen/dollar exchange rate once exceeded 156 yen during the day, the highest in a month in the Tokyo foreign exchange market.

# economic indicators
US Q3 GDP growth (QoQ) 3.1% (estimated: 2.8% / previous: 3.0%)

[Daishin Securities Investment Strategy / Marketplace Telegram Channel]

반응형