U.S. Rising, Korea Falling. I came in to play some

2024. 11. 12. 20:26U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

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U.S. Rising, Korea Falling. I came in to play some Facebook after one game today. Bitcoin exceeds $80,000, and stocks in the U.S. go up without knowing that they are going up high due to Trump's effect. In particular, Musk-related stocks and PayPal Mafia stocks are rising explicitly. But we don't know where the bottom is, and we just go down. Where are all the people who said that if we abolish the gold investment tax, the market will fly away? What's the next excuse? I thought about the reason why our market is falling over the weekend.

Of course, politics will be the first reason, and TSMC lost its semiconductor advantage to the semiconductor industry through the three advances, but for now, it will be the exchange rate. There is a gap between the US market interest rate and our market interest rate. Even if the US lowers the base rate, the market interest rate will be 3.5-3.75% even if the base rate is lowered, considering the Trump-era bond issuance increase and the neutral interest rate of 3.5%, and the Trump-era fiscal expansion almost broke the bond issuance increase, but the market interest rate cannot come down. The problem is that we cannot predict how much the exchange rate will rise due to the difference in interest rates between us and the US and the difference in economic growth percentage. The US should also maintain a strong dollar as bond rates will rise.

The second is the extortion of production facilities that only we do not know. The United States has taken away all of our food, such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and battery factories through the IRA law, which is a socialist idea. Even a rough calculation shows that 120-130 trillion won has been pumped into the construction of US factories this year. Of course, it was a measure to avoid US tariffs, but it is obvious that profits will deteriorate due to high wages and low productivity among Americans, and the number of Genes jobs has increased, but hundreds of thousands of Korean jobs have been lost. Even that, uncertainty has only increased since Trump. Will there be price competition between semiconductors and batteries produced in the United States?

What's more, he will definitely take home the shipbuilding industry now. What Trump said to Yoon that Korea is the best in the shipbuilding industry is to build a shipyard in the U.S. Although the repair and maintenance of U.S. warships, which we expect and carelessly like, will not be carried out in Korea due to air defense, construction and repair of U.S. warships are only possible implicitly within the U.S. mainland. Repair and manufacture of U.S. warships are said to be essential in order to fight China. That's why Trump told Korea to build a shipyard in its own country quickly, but the Korean media is trying to strengthen cooperation with the U.S. How about foreign investors not know that Korea is taking away all this and that? I can hear Korea's GDP is dropping...

I'm sure everyone left Korean stocks for American stocks anyway, but I'm frustrated thinking about my children's future food. I'm increasingly thinking about sending my daughter to the U.S. every day. What is the reason for a component leader?

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