2024. 11. 10. 12:31ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
-Trump 2.0-era "Trumpquake" will be a bumpy ride-
Since DONALD TRUMP was elected as the 47th president of the United States, global journalists have expressed various opinions on what President Trump will do in the future through "TRUMP 2.0".
Among these various opinions, the first and foremost is the illegal deportation of immigrants that Trump promised during the presidential campaign.
And tariff policies and inflation, people who have persecuted and threatened him over the past four years, REVENGE for countries, especially the U.S. Deep States and Iran, and the early end of the Russia-Ukraine war, and rumors of Trump's visit to North Korea.
By the way, on Nov 9, 2024 (Reuters) - "PEE ESCOBAR," a Brazilian journalist and geopolitical figure, is posting something like this: "FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS" - "PEE ESCOBAR EXPLAINERS The Trumpquake."
In other words, Pepe Escobar tells people to fasten their seatbelts because a Trump earthquake can occur in global politics and the economy in the Trump 2.0 era.
Pepe Escobar summarizes the following.
1. “Let’s make the Ukrainian war the last major war in the 21st century”
Trump, who hates war, says, "Let's make the war in Ukraine the last major war of the 21st century."
In particular, the war in Ukraine is described as "The War in Ukraine is a replacement of WWIII," and in particular, Trump is said to "provide a peaceful withdrawal of the United States" from the war in Ukraine.
In other words, Trump will take his foot out of the Russia-Ukraine war, and even if NATO and Ukraine go to war with Russia together in the future, he will leave the war.
This suggests that the United States could also withdraw from NATO in the future.
2. BRICS may not last long
In other words, BRICS does not last long.
Trump has recently pointed to strengthening ties between the three BRICS (Russia, China, and Iran) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), but this is short-lived and denigrates it as an "Ameager tactical victory."
3. Trump's lifting of sanctions on Russia
The U.S. Treasury Department will allow Russian banks to trade in oil, natural gas, wood, and everything related to uranium in all forms, three months after Trump took office (approximately April 30, 2025).
(Trump will be already three months in power – allowing transactions with Russian banks on anything related to oil, natural gas, timber and any form of uranium).
Therefore, I believe that the Russia-Ukraine war could end in some form before April 30, 2025.
This is Trump's strategy to de-energize BRICS, Russia and the U.S. are entering a friendly relationship, and Trump's strategy to soothe Putin's heart who wants to cry.
In the end, China remains the remaining target of the United States.
In addition, Trump sees the three BRICS countries and North Korea as BRICS+, which he also describes as a poor tactical victory.
To summarize the future relationship between the U.S. and North Korea, the following scenario can be cited.
The first U.S.-North Korea summit took place between the Kim Jong-un regime in North Korea and the Trump administration in the U.S., and was held on June 12, 2018, on Sentosa Island in Singapore, and the second U.S.-North Korea summit was held in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 27 and 28, 2019, but the talks failed.
So, Trump believes that he may once again engage in diplomatic relations between the U.S. and North Korea through the North Korea-U.S. summit, and that Trump may break the "Korea-U.S.-Japan Memorandum of Security Cooperation," which is a stumbling block.
Therefore, I believe that the future partner of security cooperation on the Korean Peninsula may be "the United States, the Republic of Korea, Russia, and North Korea."
4. The strong dollar and weaponization of the United States continue.
Trump has officially threatened to blacklist any country that uses other currencies for international trade, and has already blacklisted BRICS and BRICS+ partners (Trumpquake - if taken at face value - is bound to future weaponize the U.S. Dollar; Trump has threatened, on the record, to blacklist any nation that uses other currencies for international trade).
In the end, Trump's strategy to lose the power of BRICS or BRICS+ can be seen as "BRICS CURENCY" preventing the replacement of the dollar in advance.
And in conclusion, Pepe Escobar concludes the following.
“Fasten your seatbelts: whatever happens, Trumpquake is bound to be a bumpy ride.,
"Fasten your seat belt: Whatever happens, Trump earthquake is going to be a bumpy ride"
In particular, I think the Republic of Korea should not miss the opportunity because Trump's earthquake may be of great benefit to the Republic of Korea.