2024. 9. 21. 14:03ㆍU.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook
[App-clone]
Hello, I'm a kettle that runs a small private hospital as an internal medicine specialist in Seongsu-dong.
Today, I would like to talk about the investment opportunities of 'Appclone', a CAR-T treatment development company.
The stock has continued to fall since September, mainly due to concerns that there is an overhang issue with an additional 200,000 shares listed on (1)9/23, and that the cash equivalents are around 6.8 billion as of the end of the (2) half year, which could lead to a shareholder-allocated capital increase like Peptron's.
But
(1) The volume to be listed on September 23rd is 10% (2.2 billion won) of call options that the company can buy back out of the 22 billion (cps 12 billion, cb 10 billion) issued by AppClone in 2022, without the majority shareholder of AppClone exercising to satisfy their self-interest... This is the amount returned to newly reinvested institutions.
90% of the 22 billion shares issued in 2022 have already been converted, and the last 10% will be on the market this time. The additional listing is about 200,000 shares (2 billion shares), and considering the volume and market capitalization, it is considered virtually meaningless. And the fact that this is the last overhang is much more important to investor sentiment.
More importantly, AppClone is a company that does not have any issues with management items due to the legal loss issue (two out of three years legal loss exceeds 50% of equity capital). There have already been no legal loss issues for 21~23 years, and even if the legal loss exceeds 50% of equity capital this year, it has nothing to do with the designation of management items. Therefore, it is a company that does not have to make excessive shareholder allocation capital increase.
And according to my Yeouido information, Appclone is being invested in convertible preferred stocks (cps) + convertible bonds (cb), which is largely confirmed. There are almost no bio companies that have recently been invested in CPS, and in this situation, if Appclone receives CPS investment, it will be a good thing. Institutional investors will see the possibility of CAR-T being developed by Appclone and come into three-way allocation.
Once the CPS investment is confirmed, the total capital will increase by at least 15 billion won with CPS alone. The total capital will reach 42 billion won, and the cash equivalents held will be about 37 billion won, making it a very healthy company in the financial statements.
In addition, the announcement of interim results of phase 2 clinical trials of CAR-T treatment is expected from October to November.
I'm also a physician, and I've seen so many blood cancer patients when I was training as a specialist. Do you know when blood cancer patients struggle the most? This is not the time to be diagnosed with cancer. It's the hardest time when you're notified of a recurrence. Numerous blood cancer patients experience recurrence after complete remission.
Patients who participated in Abclone's phase 1 CAR-T clinical trial have not relapsed for several months. The company continues to publish follow-up results from AACR and ASCO. Phase 2 clinical trials administer a much higher dose than phase 1. Clinical results for CAR-T without recurrence are expected. It is expected that it will be developed as a new drug that can save countless blood cancer patients suffering from recurrence.
It is also attractive that Appclone's market capitalization is 240 billion won, which is at the lowest point in its weekly salary. Recently, stock prices have been falling out due to funding issues, so this is considered a really attractive investment opportunity.
(1)If it is financed through cps, it will solve the concern of the shareholder-allocated capital increase, and (2) by 9/23, even the last overhang will be listed and disappear. So today (September 20) could be an opportunity.
It is also attractive from an investment perspective that the stock price is at the lowest point on the weekly basis. It also compares a lot to the domestic CAR-T company Qrocell (400 billion units in market total), which has never published data on recurrence of blood cancer. The key to blood cancer treatment is recurrence. Considering the medical data, the expectation of the announcement of phase 2 results, the stock price of Appclone is ridiculously low. Upside looks big.
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