2024. 8. 19. 22:04ㆍ카테고리 없음
Stock outlook, economy, and... physicists...
One of the people who won the Nobel Prize for economics for suggesting the irrationality of classical economics is Daniel Kahneman. He's someone I really like...
He won the Nobel Prize for his theory of prospect..
Before that, the economics of rational utility theory were
1. Humans have the ability to evaluate risk.
2. 사람 One responds symmetrically to the same gains and losses
(Efficiently and reasonably)
3. A person's primary Guam review is that in the context of uncertainty, the choice is
Finally, it is the absolute size of wealth or income
(You selectively evaluate the results compared to other people's wealth or income
I don't)
This was the basic position of economics
1. Humans are at a high probability of accident on a plane
It's not a reasonable judgment that it's not because there's no transportation
2. The 1 million won gain and 500,000 won loss are half and half
If the gain of 500,000 won and the loss of 50,000 won are 8:2
It's mostly about choosing the latter
3. The main concern of a person is not the wealth and income they end up getting
It's relative gain and loss.
By proving in this way, the existing rational utility theory is proved wrong.
That's what a physicist who studied the stock market said on Moyutube
1. Investment in learning artificial intelligence to find out the trend curve
It's been done by many countries and asset managers. What's been revealed in the past is
It was predictable for just four minutes. And of course, it's an incredible thing
It's a story of the past, and now it's almost not right
2. There is a fundamental theory and a chart theory for stock valuation
They're both not right, and according to fundamental theory, the stock price is
You can't have more than 10% volatility in a day
Chart theory is that it's meaningless in and of itself... it's a moving average..
The thing is... it's not right at all... it's mathematically statistically
He said he proved it..
I heard there's a cartoon...
A famous investor named A said he found a very good stock
I used the word EXCEL at the time, and people heard this word
I only heard CEL and sold it all out (I went into SEL)...
This guy said, "I'm not doing stocks anymore because this stock market is a mess." People are buying a lot of stocks after hearing BYE. LOL
In the end... the stock market is not a predictable rational market..
The question is, how does Warren Buffett... invest well for a long time?
His answer is... my analysis is from the general investor's point of view
Investors who have a lot of information and knowledge and through their own know-how
Carrots can be different.
Lastly, the operating rate of all funds operated by Korea's fund is
It is said to be lower than the average stock index...
So let's do these ads. Our fund A is going to make a profit above the stock index, so join this fund, which means that even if you're a non-expert investment in stocks, the average converges to the composite stock index, so it's natural to go above that... Is it something to advertise with pride???
In the end, to summarize.
If I have professional knowledge, information, and some kind of judgment, it can be meaningful to invest in stocks, whether it's an individual event or not, but it's mostly impossible for those who don't,
Especially for individuals, it means very little...
In particular, as long as behavioral economics great Daniel Kahneman has already stated that rational utility theory does not apply to decision-making...
Can irrational human decision-making or prospects be reasonable predictions??
Artificial intelligence is possible... learning the trajectories created by humans who make irrational decisions... how do rational decisions come out??
In the end, most of these activities, such as predicting the stock market or forecasting the economy, are not to be believed.
If, like Warren Buffett, I have accumulated information, knowledge, research, and past experience and I am not able to judge...