You know, the market is crazy right now, so let's summarize what's going on,
You know, the market is crazy right now, so let's summarize what's going on,
1. As soon as the CPI announcement came out, the yield fell sharply. Right? Since the CPI was low, the base rate drop is expected to be fast. By the way, USD/JPY fell from 161.57 to 157.44. In 30 minutes. Now, it's a little rebound, but it's less than $159. At the same time as the CPI announcement, we suspect Japanese authorities' involvement, but it's similar to the yield fall, so it may not be Japanese authorities' involvement. The Japanese government has put up a smoke screen to announce at the end of the month whether it will intervene or not.
2. The index hasn't rebounded much since the CPI announcement, opened up the regulars and looked at the liver, started to fall right away, and it's been falling for over an hour. The fall is much bigger in the NQ. It's already past Wednesday's lows. ES is still only about half of Wednesday's gains. Those who expected a low CPI reflection would be baffled.
3. CPI numbers are low, but when you look at the content, your head is tilted. Overall, the high CPI and the drop in used car and gasoline prices are so excessive that it feels like it's brought down the entire CPI. Am I the only one who thinks it's a little too much to see as something consistent CPI decline?
4. The weekly employment index, like the CPI, came out stronger. The Continuous, New Jobless claim came out lower than expected, less than last week. That means it's going in the opposite direction of the results of the non-farm released last Friday. The non-farm in August is likely to have a stronger employment index, which is not the direction that we can cut the benchmark interest rate based on the FOMC. It seems like you need to continue monitoring the weekly employment index.
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