A Chinese economic expert wrote it, and I'm neither a Chinese expert nor an econ

A Chinese economic expert wrote it, and I'm neither a Chinese expert nor an economic expert, but I'm posting it because I think the story of "Martin Gale betting" that he put forward as a strength of the Chinese semiconductor industry has implications.

Let's think about this.

So let's say we're playing a 5:5 Martin Gale bet, which is fair to win, so you can easily think of a coin toss or something.
What is the probability that the player will go bankrupt if the number of trials increases?

At first glance, the expected value is likely to be zero, so the probability of going bankrupt is less than half. That's the expected value, but it's not. The probability of going bankrupt is close to 1.

The reason is simple, because you can't lose money indefinitely. If you lose all your money, you can't bet on Martin Gale anymore,
In addition, because the money is exponentially increased, the risk of bankruptcy that you have to bear if the market gets a little bigger is out of control.

Aaron, Martin Gale betting seems like a good strategy, but that's why it's not being made on the actual gambling floor. But China is making Martin Gale bets in the semiconductor market. What does this mean?

I'll close with one similar case story of "Martin Gale Betting" that I've heard.

It was a long time ago. I went to a broadcasting station, Kangwon Land, and I got quite a lot of money from Baccarat. Then, I thought I could take a big hit. So I got a loan and went back to Kangwon Land, and I got robbed of everything.

PD, who was even going to die, confessed, thinking that he would confess to his wife because he was going to die anyway. Then the wife said, "This is what happened anyway, let's change all our property into money and do bakara for the last time. And if we lose all of them, let's die together."

The two of them went to Kangwon Land with all their real wealth, and then they went baccarat with all their money that was left, and they went all-in again.

Perhaps God helped him, but he won several times in a row and, with more than W1.7 billion, came home happy with his wife. Of course, he never even looked toward Kangwon Land again.

Martin Gale betting is a way to use it at times like this. I hope you think about it.