U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

[A new era of energy crisis]

Tmarket 2024. 6. 30. 07:47
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[A new era of energy crisis]

2022 has seen a crisis because energy prices in Europe are so high. Lower Russian natural gas supplies have led to higher costs for gas plants, and both heating and electricity bills have more than tripled, taking a toll on the European economy.

A phenomenon that has become apparent in Europe since 2024 is the expansion of the so-called negative rate electric time zone, where electricity bills become W0 due to overflowing supply compared to demand. With the first half not yet over, it is already expected to exceed 542 hours in 2023, and there is a possibility that it will reach 1000 hours by the end of the year.

The main cause of negative-rate electricity is a surge in solar power. Spring is the most active season for solar power in the northern hemisphere. The weather is neither too hot nor too cold, so power demand is low. As a result, solar power production exceeds half of demand in many areas on spring weekends.

All power systems have generators that must be turned around due to inertia and various contracts. This is called a must-run generator. If these generators account for half of the demand, non-must-run generators compete with half of the demand. Solar and wind generators have no fuel costs, so they try to supply electricity if they are paid for even one won.

Large thermal power generators that cannot be turned off and on in the middle are not must-run generators, but they are not the problem. For example, solar power generators cannot compete at 2 p.m. on April weekends, but at 8 p.m., generators that can make enough money have to make a difficult choice. From 2 p.m. to 4 p.m., we want to develop at negative prices to secure power lines or, worse, to secure power lines, and from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m., we want to sell electricity at a rate that can recover the cost of raw materials and facility investment.

Negative-rate electricity helps consumers to make ends meet, but it's not good in the long run. It's a serious crisis for power generation businesses. Renewable energy businesses can't make money, and fossil fuel power generation businesses can fall into a business crisis due to falling sales. The cost of having to pay must-run generators could also increase. Investors turn a blind eye to profitable businesses, and a decrease in investment puts the entire system at risk when demand surges or supply disruptions occur in the future. We need to maintain an affordable price that can attract steady investment.

In order to do this, we need to shift demand or move the amount of renewable energy generation. That's why ESS, a battery that can be installed and used quickly, is in the spotlight. When electricity is overflowing through ESS, it is stored and sold afterwards, and consumers can charge (increase demand) cheap electricity and discharge (decrease demand) when electricity demand is in demand, which is both beneficial for themselves and good for the system.

Although the fire safety of battery ESS is not completely resolved, and battery ESS still fires in all of the United States, Europe, Korea, and China, widespread dissemination is nonetheless essential. If the problem of excessively cheap electricity prices is not solved through ESS, it is difficult to expect to realize electrification and overcome the climate crisis.


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