It's difficult to share in detail what you've seen and heard for five days, and
It's already been 10 days since I went to CERAWeek 2024.
It took me a few days to adjust to the time difference, maybe because I got older. I had to deal with the work that was pushed back while I was away, and I'm finally getting a little conscious.
It's difficult to share in detail what you've seen and heard for five days, and I'd like to tell you a few impressive things.
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1. Compared to the Past: All Confident about Oil & Gas's Future
When I first attended CERAWeek in 2019, there was a lot of anxiety about the future of the Oil & Gas industry and how to respond to it due to Energy Transition. Despite lingering questions about whether Tesla could continue to exist at the time, Oil & Gas companies openly talked about their anxiety about the future.
ExxonMobil argued that electric vehicles were not widely available, and Aramco said it would respond by developing innovative engines. European Oil/Gas Major, like BP and Shell, have announced strategies to expand their natural gas and solar/wind power businesses in the hope of "natural gas and electrification."
CERAWeek has also been suspended due to COVID-19. In 2023, which is the first time in four years, companies talked about realistic constraints such as 1) rising costs of renewable energy generation due to the U.S.-China conflict, 2) lack of mineral resources, 3) declining motivation to invest in infrastructure and falling profitability due to rising interest rates.
"I want to do it, but I have a lot of difficulties, so I don't know what to do," he said, smiling.
But this year, it's completely different.
CEO Aramco called the Peak Oil Demand "Fantasy," CEO ExxonMobil said, "Who's going to pay? Who's going to pay for it?" Shell CEO also called for "Hope is not a strategy," urging people to think realistically. The Russia-U.S. war plunged Europe into an energy crisis overnight because of the energy policy of losing Balace.
Not only Oil & Gas Major but even the Coal Corporation was excited. It felt like an Oil & Gas Holic revival that everyone was so confident about. In response to this atmosphere, one participant even warned, "The chamber is full of echoes of the consensus." He also said that it was the first time he had seen such an exciting atmosphere.
We'll have to wait and see what happens by the end of the year.
2. AI Data Center Appears as a Strong Demand
What made this atmosphere even hotter was the emergence of a new Big Energy Consumer called AI Data Center. The atmosphere is already good, and the demand for electricity has soared due to the AI Data Center.
There is a limit to the stable operation of the AI Data Center with 'solar/wind power generation + ESS'. It's a national infrastructure-level facility, but renewable energy generation is not stable. It wasn't just an argument.
The CEO of Dominion Energy, which operates a power business in northern Virginia, the world's largest data server concentration area, said this. Considering response time to demand, ESS is a difficult option for data center operators. The consensus was that natural gas is actually the only alternative.
3. 3. Electrifying Everything
For oil & gas companies, Energy Transition seems to have ended with Electrifying Everything. Energy consumers say they want clean, convenient power to replace all energy supplies. Natural gas and LNG were emphasized as energy sources here, too.
4. Biggest concern: China on falling demand
I was worried that China, which for more than 20 years has become a black hole of not only Oil & Gas but all communities in the world, is now at Peak. India, Southeast Asia, Global South, etc. are saying that they can never replace China. I think that's a reasonable argument considering income levels.
5. "United States presidential election, 2024"
Everyone was expecting a regime change in the United States. There is a Republican-friendly atmosphere, but this is the first time I've seen such an outspoken critic of the U.S. government. Not even half of last year's attendees at Senator Joe Manchin's speech were applaudable, and not even half of those who announced that he would not run were present. Some even said, "The sooner you admit it, the less painful it will be." Apparently, he will be back in November.
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