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Tmarket 2024. 3. 28. 18:42
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I kept making space comments in the marketplace,
With sector action coming out earlier than I thought..
I thought it was going to go up too much,
I think it's the best for space-related companies,
I'm trying to explain the contact I think I can go in trillions.

Contech's business model is simply "tolgate."
We all know that the toll gate business is a big deal.
Contek's business is easy to think of as the universe version of the tollgate.

It is easy to understand that Contact is in the business of installing the toll gate (ground station) and operating its own toll gate (ground station).
When a ground station is located in a certain area, like a toll gate, no other ground station is nearby,
Customers who use it once will continue to use it.

But the point here is,
Just as the number of vehicles using this road increases toll revenue,
Going forward. Continuing. The number of satellites using terrestrial stations will continue to increase.
And even, with the government pushing the space business,
The number of scheduled satellite launches continues to increase.
Those satellites will naturally use Contek's ground station,
So, it's a company that's guaranteed growth.

That's all for explaining Contact in a really easy version.
In the future, Contact will build more ground stations,
We're going to build more of our own ground states and operate them,
With sales exploding from this year,
I think it will show the highest growth among space companies.

Now let's go into the detailed explanation.

Contact is the only private ground station in Asia and the third-largest global ground station.
It is the only company in Korea that provides commercial ground station services.
After installing the ground station, if a customer with a satellite makes a request,
Providing services that receive and deliver that data to customers.
Eventually, as the number of satellites increases, Contact's sales multiply.
This business model is called Ground Station As A Service (GSaaS).
Each time you communicate with a customer satellite, you charge about $55, and customers who use it frequently discount the price per communication.
Government agency satellites charge more than $70-130 per communication.

The number of satellite launches is exploding every year around the world, as is the case in Korea,
As the number of satellites increases, the demand for ground station communication is bound to increase that much.
Contact will build 15 ground stations in 12 countries within this year, and the number will continue to grow in the future.
And the point of contact is, in fact, there's no cap on this sales.
GSaaS sales per ground station are set at about 1 billion won a year,
When demand increases, another ground station can be built right next to it.
For example, a Norwegian company continued to add ground stations next to the ground stations and built 100 ground stations.
If the number of satellites increases explosively later, GSaaS alone may dream of more than 100 billion won in sales.

In Korea, most companies run the business of producing satellite bodies,
In fact, the proportion of building and launching satellites is 29% of all space projects,
Satellite services and ground equipment and satellite operations account for a much larger proportion.
Of course, satellite launches themselves are exploding, so their business is promising,
The more explosive the satellite launch is, the more monopolistic the company can grow in sales.
Why? We'll shoot more satellites, but as much as we shoot more, Contact grows sales with the "accumulation" of those satellites.

It's the run.
There was a recent launch of SpaceX's Starship.
You can see it as simply momentum,
This makes a huge difference in the space industry as a whole.
Existing micro-satellites cost about 2 billion dollars based on Falcon,
Starship will reduce the cost to 200 to 400 million won.
And then? More businesses will shoot more satellites,
More satellites will lead to increased sales of Contech.
In the future, we will see more satellite launches at shorter intervals.

Then, how much is the market capitalization of Contact?
Let's look at the performance first.
Contech's business can be viewed in four ways.
Ground station system engineering, network solution (GSaaS), data processing solution, satellite image utilization solution.
Ground station system engineering is a structure that increases as more ground stations are built, so this will continue to grow.
Network solutions, data processing solutions, and satellite image utilization solutions are all actually woven together,
The more satellite data is received using the ground station of Contact, the more solution sales continue to increase.
The profit margin of these three solutions is more than 60%.
In 25, sales of network solutions are about 17 billion won per year just by the amount confirmed by government orders.
Currently, there are about 3,800 satellites in operation around the world, and 17,000 satellites are expected to be launched in the next 10 years. This is five times higher than the current one.
As the number of ground stations operating is increasing, the number of satellites using Contact's GSaaS service is increasing,
Next year, and beyond, we will continue to see explosive solution sales growth.

As you grow like this,
In a few years, sales of 5 to 60 billion per year are expected to be GSaaS sales alone,
I think the profit expected here will be around 40 billion won.
After that? Of course, growth will continue after that.
Orders? Most of the government's national tasks have increased as orders have increased, but they will not decrease over the next 10 years.
First of all, this is a future assumption, so let's think about it later.
In the next 25 years, the installation of ground stations is expected to be late 30 billion won, 17 billion won in GSaaS alone, and about 70 billion won in sales if sales of other solutions are added.
Since it is an order-based project, operating profit of around 20 billion won per year is expected next year alone in almost certain numbers.

Next is the valuation.
First of all, there are very few global peers, but France's SAFRAN, the most suitable peer, has a market capitalization of $83.5 billion. Compared to the end of last year, it is up 20% more.
PSR is 4 times, PER is 27 times. Of course, there is a big difference in sales, but SAFRAN is growing about 20% per year, and Contact is growing 100% per year.
Let's just assume that the same PER valuation is applied.

Excluding growth potential, even if this valuation is given to next year's performance right away, it has a market capitalization of 500 billion won.
But in a few years, Contech is expected to make about 50 billion won a year in operating profit,
Then, what should the company's market capitalization be then?
And I think in the far future, it's a company that can make an operating profit of 100 billion won a year,
I think it's a company that shouldn't be in the 200 billion won market capitalization right now,
I think it's a company that should be around 500 billion won in the near future.
And in a few years, of course, I think it's a company that needs to be in trillions.
I don't have a son because I'm not married, but if I had, I want to pass it on to my son.

In addition, Hillspring Investment has 8% of it, and when it exceeded KRW 2.5 million at the beginning of the year, 5% of it was unlocked for two months,
Even then, there was no sale at all. The public offering price is 22,500 won.
Now, Contek is thought to be the same section as the QRT at the beginning of 20,000 won, which had an overhang, but thought it was very comfortable up to 29,000 won.

Until now, many stock analysis articles have been written, including Alteogen, Samcheondang Pharmaceutical, Genomic Tree, Emro, Jaram Technology, QRT, and LIG Nex1.
But eventually, the stock analysis has more upsides than the current stock,
It should feel more attractive, but I can't see any items that I've used than companies and contacts,
If there are no companies that I think are better than Contech, I will take a break from the analysis.

Absolutely not a recommendation, it's up to each individual to make a buy/sell decision.
The content of the post may be inaccurate, and losses resulting from the sale are the responsibility of the parties to the transaction.
The content of this post may not be used as a legal basis in any case.
The companies you introduce may be in possession, and you can sell them at any time.
It's about organizing it by yourself, so never follow along, and please keep in mind that you watch the event like this.

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