U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

<"Korea's value-up should follow the U.S., not Japan">

Tmarket 2024. 3. 16. 15:03
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<"Korea's value-up should follow the U.S., not Japan">

I didn't know much about the rise in Japan's Nikkei index, but I first learned from a senior asset management official at lunch today that there were some illusions about the vertical rise in the Japanese stock market.

The main content was that whenever the Japanese government came to the bottom of the stock market through the central bank, ETFs were purchased, and the performance improved due to the yen's low effect was a high-profile Japanese stock market. At the end of February, the ETFs held by the existing Bank of Japan amounted to 71 trillion yen based on the market price, and the valuation profit was close to 34 trillion yen.

An official of the management company said, "The Japanese government will have to sell ETFs that it has purchased every year, and when that time comes, the Japanese stock market will inevitably fall." At the same time, he pointed out the problem of falling consumer purchasing power behind the strong exports of Japanese companies today.

Of course, the central bank's purchase of ETFs will not be all about the rise of the Japanese stock market. However, the claim that the Japanese stock market has improved in our society today thanks to the "value-up program" seems far from reality. In fact, the stock price plunged three days before the news that the central bank of Japan would suddenly withhold the purchase of ETFs. #Where is the coffee industry going

Although the number of domestic cafes has exceeded 100,000, the development stage of the domestic coffee industry is still in its infancy compared to advanced countries. Here are the characteristics and prospects of the domestic coffee industry that I observed.

1. Korean coffee consumption is among the lower groups of OECD countries as of 2021, but so far, it has grown rapidly centered on cafes.
2. The cafe market has slowed down with growth exceeding 100,000, but overall coffee consumption continues to rise.
3. The domestic coffee market is facing an inflection point from cafe-centered growth, and coffee consumption is likely to spread to everyday culture such as businesses and home cafes.
4. Looking at the structure of the U.S. coffee market, it is expected that the proportion of cafes in the Korean coffee market will decrease and the proportion of businesses and home cafes will gradually increase in the future.
5. The Korean coffee market is currently entering the second phase. If the first phase is the transition from mixed coffee to coffee beans, the second phase is the transition to the era of drinking cafe-level coffee beans everywhere in life like in developed countries.
6. Howard Schultz's "third space" initiative has spread around the world through Starbucks, and the domestic coffee market has now become a "third space," and will move from the "great cafe era" to the "first and second spaces."
6. And in the next three stages, we expect the essential coffee experience to change more conveniently and pleasantly.  
7. These new opportunities are emerging at the interface between technological advances and traditional industries, and venture start-ups can challenge themselves in these areas.

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