Compared to last weekend, it seems that the weather has gotten really cold.

Compared to last weekend, it seems that the weather has gotten really cold. It's a little painful when you wear thin clothes when you go for a walk. And I feel that my hands are a little cold. Is Dong-gun coming now? The temperature is abnormal. Even if it's.. I like the warm weather more than the cold weather. haha Next week, it will hover below zero in the morning. For those who have children who are preparing for this week's CSAT, I hope you will make every effort to take care of your children's condition. And I will start an essay on the weekend hoping that you will achieve what you mean as much as you have worked hard for a long time.

There's a lot of news coming up this weekend. Let's take a look at a few news stories. First of all, I mentioned the potentially protracted Israeli-Hamas conflict in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran is saying the responsibility lies with Israel, hinting at a certain level of escalation, and the Saudis are stressing that the Israeli attacks in Gaza must be quickly stopped and the United States must take control. It appears to be an important turning point in the direction of the Israel-Hamas toward the Israel-U.S. VS. Islam.

If this happens in a bad way, it is a burden because oil prices will rise, making it difficult to suppress inflation. However, personally, it is more burdensome that geopolitical risks could occur sporadically and frequently around the world in the future. Well, the pros and cons will be divided, but having a country with hegemony in a region often helps stabilize the region. For example, if there is a member of a class who is very good at fighting, and if he comes up with a problem and defeats the opponent in a moment, he is afraid of the member, so there is no easy fight.

Since the U.S. left Afghanistan, the withdrawal of troops from the Middle East, which has been going on since the Obama administration, is creating the current situation. If the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, are not resolved easily and lead to a long-term war, there may be a strong perception that "super power America can't do much." Then there could be another unexpected conflict. If geopolitical unrest continues, the recovery of the most sensitive supply chain right now could be slowed down even more. Rather than immediate oil price hikes...long-term supply chain instability...we need to keep an eye on this.

The second news is that Moody's has lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative." It's much better than lowering the rating, of course, than lowering the rating itself, and yet we see that Moody's is also very concerned about the country's finances. So I ask you this question: Is it better for companies to raise money with debt? Or should they issue shares and raise them with capital? Debt can pay off set interest and principal, but in the case of stocks, they have to pay dividends equivalent to equity as the company grows. So, raising money with debt costs less than raising capital with stocks. So, if you have the expectation that you'll be able to see higher-than-interest rates on loans, then you won't feel much pressure if you increase your debt. Rather, you'll feel undesirable if you increase your capital and share your dividends with more other shareholders than you don't want.

But what's the amount of debt that you have ... if this keeps increasing, the burden on investors on that company can be significantly increased at one point. And you keep feeling that it's going to be okay, and once you feel that this is not going to be easy, but this is serious, and the way you look at that company is going to change a lot from an efficiently indebted company to an over-indebted company, and the interest rates on which this company borrows money go through the roof.

The same applies to the United States. The problem with the US fiscal deficit did not last for a day or two, but debt has increased significantly since COVID-19, and the Biden administration is constantly increasing debt. Even if debt increases, growth will increase more strongly, and if interest burdens can be offset now and in the future, there will be no big problem. But if the debt becomes so large... Then the market's view of the national debt turns sour at once. If the rising interest rates on government bonds reflect concerns about the US fiscal deficit, and if the market is more concerned about debt, the current Moody's news could be burdensome news.

Number three, the IMF's advice to the ECB. The ECB, after the last increase in the benchmark interest rate, indicated that the rate hike was almost over, but the ECB raised the issue here. I quote an article.

According to major foreign media, Alfred Kamer, head of the IMF's European division, said, "Fast wage growth in the euro zone could keep inflation going longer. The market expects interest rates to be cut as early as April next year, but ECB deposit rates should remain at an all-time high of 4% throughout next year."

"Monetary policy is properly tightening and should remain so next year," Carmer added. He raised his voice of warning against the market, which is expected to start cutting interest rates in April next year and cut a total of 90 basis points over the next year.

"If the ECB cuts rates too quickly, it needs more costly policy tightening later on," he said. "It costs less to tighten too much than to loosen it too much. The last process of inflation falling from 3% to 2% may take two years, he said, saying he wanted to avoid a toast too early." (Yonhap Infomax, 23.11.8)

If you look at the first paragraph, you'll see that the ECB's wage increases may cause inflation to last longer than expected. And then he makes remarks that put a damper on the market's expectation that the ECB will cut interest rates in April next year, and they'll start cutting interest rates in April next year, and they'll cut rates by 90 basis points over a year. And in the third paragraph, they warn you that if you do that, it will take a lot of time and money to bring inflation down to two percent. And maybe because of the ECB's warning, Lagarde says.

ECB President Lagarde said at a conference hosted by the Financial Times on the 10th (local time) that if interest rates remain at their current levels "for a long enough time," inflation would contribute significantly to falling to its 2% target in the medium term.

Asked how long that would be, he said, "'Long enough' literally means it's long enough. It doesn't mean 'the next couple of quarters' we're going to see a change."

"This suggests there will be no policy change, or rate cuts, within at least two quarters." (YONINFORMAX. 23.11.11)

Mr. Lagarde, in his first paragraph, emphasizes the need to keep the current tightening levels of interest rates for long enough. And when asked about that time frame, he says that at least we won't see a change in the next two quarters. Two quarters. Because it's six months. So now it's November. And if we add six months to that, we're going to be in April or May next year. I think I saw somewhere in April next year. Yes. You saw it in the IMF's warning earlier. Mr. Lagarde is pouring cold water on that April dream.

There's something more important than that. When Lagarde asked reporters at the ECB meeting last month when they were going to change monetary policy... there's no forward guidance!! But this time, he's starting to kind of give a forward guidance vibe by saying that it's not the next two quarters. Yes, there's no forward guidance on how to do monetary policy in the future, but he's at least taking a hint by using forward guidance when it comes to excitement in anticipation of lower interest rates. The ECB is probably paying attention to the case of the RBA, the central bank of Australia, which raised its key interest rate for the first time in five months last week. ... The RBA is sending out these warnings.

"The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has revised its outlook for short-term core inflation significantly, warning that inflationary pressures are cooling at a slower pace than expected. Minutes of this month's monetary policy meeting released by the RBA on the 10th suggested the possibility of further rate hikes, assuming an official cash rate peak of about 4.5%. On the 7th, the RBA held a monetary policy meeting and raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%.

The RBA expects average inflation, which is key to policymaking, to rise 4.0% year-on-year by mid-2024. This is up from a forecast of 3.35% in August. By the end of 2025, inflation had risen by 3.00%, up from a previous forecast of 2.75%. (Opening)


"Inflation is past its peak, but it is still too high and has proven more tenacious than expected months ago," the statement said. (Union Infomax, 23.11.10)

If you look at the first paragraph, the RBA says it's looking at an interest rate peak of 4.5%. Now, with the base rate going up by 25 basis points, it's now 4.35%. You're saying that we could raise interest rates further. And the second paragraph says that the reason for this is that the inflation forecast is going to rise by 4.0% by the middle of the 24th ... and fall to 3.0% by the end of the 25th. The Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target is two to three percent, not two percent like the rest of the world, but it's still not until the end of the 25th that it's going to return to the 3.0 percent target. And if you look at the last paragraph, it's emphasizing that inflation is more persistent than expected.

Persistent inflation in the U.S. announced last Friday