U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

Nasdaq Continues To Rise Coinbase On Bitcoin Bullish Effect

Tmarket 2024. 3. 9. 10:29
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Nasdaq Continues To Rise Coinbase On Bitcoin Bullish Effect

The U.S. stock market started with limited fluctuations, with profit-taking sales centered on individual stocks despite falling interest rates on government bonds due to sluggish economic indicators. As Bitcoin surged due to a number of positive factors, related stock groups were clearly strong, but AI-related software and related stock groups fell due to profit-taking sales. In the second half of the market, Apple (+0.81%) announced that it would give up Apple Car and strengthen its AI sector, and all major indexes succeeded in reducing their fall or turning upward (Dow -0.25%, Nasdaq +0.37%, S&P 500 +0.17%, Russell 2000 +1.34% and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -0.18%)

* Variables: Apple, Bitcoin, Economic Indicators

Apple (+0.81%) has been falling and rising, but suddenly expanded in the second half of the market. This is presumed to be due to the news that Apple has abandoned its business related to Apple car, dubbed the Titan Project, for more than a decade and has moved its executives and employees to AI departments. It was highlighted that Apple is using the AI industry as a key growth engine for Apple than Apple cars, and it is positive that it can produce results faster than any other company based on data from numerous Apple users. As Apple's rise, which is included in all three major U.S. indexes expanded in the related news, all major indexes either reduced their fall or succeeded in rebounding

Bitcoin has risen sharply, reflecting the news that MicroStrategy (+9.46%) purchased $155 million worth of Bitcoin and the half-life event in April. Bitcoin's half-life is an event in which the number of payments made as mining compensation is reduced by about half, which is held every four years since 2012, and takes place in April this year. On top of that, the news that Ethereum Denkun's upgrade schedule has been confirmed on the 3/13th is also favorable. Related upgrades are an important schedule to improve Ethereum's network scalability, and have a positive effect on investor sentiment in the overall virtual asset market. Of course, some investment companies, such as JPMorgan, point out that the news of the half-life and Ethereum upgrades has already been known and reflected in the price. Nevertheless, the strength of the related stock group has clearly progressed due to the strength of the virtual asset market, which has a positive impact on the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices

Meanwhile, the U.S. consumer confidence index slowed to 106.7 in February, following a sharp decline in last month's reading of 114.8 to 110.9. In detail, the short-term outlook is burdensome, as the assessment of the economy and job market shrank from 154.9 to 147.2. In particular, the expectation index fell to 79.8, below the 80.0 mark that suggests a possible recession, indicating that confidence in the U.S. economy is gradually weakening. Concerns about inflation among U.S. consumers have weakened, but concerns about employment and the political environment have widened. This has reduced purchases of high-end goods and travel plans. Rich jobs fell from 42.7% to 41.3%, and difficulty in finding jobs increased from 11.0% to 13.5%, raising the possibility of a slowdown in the job market in the future. The growing concern over the U.S. economy, which is expected to be robust, is likely to weigh on the stock market

* Features: Apple, Bitcoin-related stocks strengthen Vs. Eli Lilly slump

Apple (+0.81%) rose on the news that it had abandoned its 10-year Titan project, or Apple car-related business, and that it had moved its employees to AI departments, including executives. This is based on the prospect that Apple will eventually prioritize its core priorities with AI. Micron (+2.67%) rose on the news that it started mass production of HBM3E memory for Nvidia GPU and expanded cooperation with Samsung Electronics

Tesla (+0.17%) was once up more than 3% due to the positive impact of the Bitcoin surge, but its gains were reduced due to the sale. However, Bitcoin-related stocks such as Coinbase (+2.72%), MicroStrategy (+9.46%), Mogo (+6.36%), Block (+4.09%), Galaxy Digital (+1.39%), and Marathorn Digital (+3.84%). Obesity drug-related stocks such as Eli Lilly (-0.90%) and Novonodisk (-1.02%) fell, reflecting the possibility of intensifying competition. Viking Pharmaceuticals surged.

Norwegian Cruise Line (+19.84 percent) surged after the company reported better-than-expected earnings, more customers and higher per capita consumption. The news also pushed up businesses including Carnival (+7.65 percent) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (+3.08 percent). Restaurant chain Cava (+12.20 percent) reported earnings early by mistake, but was bullish on the results that exceeded expectations and saw a surge in same-store sales. Zoom video (+8.00 percent) surged due to better-than-expected earnings and guidance.

Unity Software (-6.11 percent) fell on mixed earnings and sluggish guidance. On top of that, Macquarie lowered its investment opinion. Workday (-3.96 percent) fell on weaker-than-expected guidance despite strong earnings. Department store chain Macy's (+3.37%) rose on expectations for cost-cutting efforts despite mixed earnings and lower same-store sales. Home improvement goods maker Lowe's (+1.76 percent) also rose on the back of better-than-expected earnings results. Autozone, an auto parts maker, rose on the back of better-than-expected earnings. Related stocks such as Tractor Supply (+3.50 percent) and Oriole Automotive (+1.85%) also rose on the back of gains.

* Figures related to Korean stock markets

The MSCI Korea Index ETF fell 0.90%, but the MSCI Emerging Index ETF gained 0.20%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.34%, although the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.18%. The Dow transport index fell 0.29%. Night futures rose 0.16%. The NDF dollar/won exchange rate, which affected the dollar/won exchange rate, closed at 1,330.50 won.

* FICC: Nickel rises on expectations of lower supplies from Indonesia

International oil prices rose on news that OPEC+ is considering a voluntary extension of production cuts until the second quarter. Furthermore, the possibility of extending production cuts is not excluded, and the fact that travel to China is actively progressing and expectations for increased demand in China are reflected. Natural gas rose on the back of strong international oil prices

The dollar's consumer confidence index has been sluggish and orders for durable goods have plummeted, but other exchange rates have been mixed. The yen strengthened against the dollar as core inflation came out higher than expected, and the euro has remained flat against the dollar as ECB President Lagarde reduced the possibility of an early rate cut despite concerns over the economy due to still strong wage growth. Most exchange rates, including offshore renminbi, are mixed ahead of the PCE price index announcement.

The interest rate on government bonds fell due to the sluggish consumer confidence index, but rebounded and fluctuated ahead of the PCE price index's announcement. Meanwhile, the 7-year government bond bidding rate was 2.58 times higher than the 12-month average of 2.53 times, and indirect bidding also increased from 68.2% to 69.6%, showing changes. However, the scope is limited.

Gold and silver remained weak ahead of the release of the PCE price index. Nonferrous metals fell in lead and zinc, but copper strengthened amid expectations for the Chinese economy, while aluminum rose on supply-demand factors. Nickel rose sharply on expectations of a drop in supply due to an Indonesian mining license issue. Wheat rose as dry weather progressed in the central part of the country, highlighting a possible strain on early post-sowing growth. Corn rose along with the rise, but soybeans fell, with crops mixed.

February 28 Global Financial Market Trends

◆ the U.S. stock market
- - DOW: 38,972.41p (-96.82p, -0.25%)
- - S&P500: 5,078.18p (+8.65p, +0.17%)
- - NASDAQ: 16,035.30p (+59.05p, +0.37%)
- Russell 2000: 2,056.11p (+27.14p, +1.34%)

◆ Korea-related
- MSCI Korea Index ETF: $63.62 (-0.58, -0.90%)
- MSCI Emerging Index ETF: $40.50 (+0.08, +0.20%)
- - Eurex kospi 200: 353.15p (+0.55p, +0.16%)
- NDF exchange rate (1 month) : KRW 1,330.72 / KRW 1 decrease from the previous day expected to start
- Philadelphia Semiconductors: 4,654.89 (-8.57, -0.18%)

◆ a foreign exchange market
- Dollar Index: 103.810 (-0.017, -0.02%)
- EUR/USD: 1.0845 (-0.0006, -0.06%)
- Dollar/yen: 150.49 (-0.21, +0.14%)
- Pound/Dollar: 1.2684 (-0.0001, -0.01%)

◆ the U.S. Treasury market
- 2-year: 4.6974% (-2.1bp)
- Five-year: 4.3149% (+0.3bp)
- 10-year: 4.3052% (+2.6bp)
- 30-year: 4.4308% (+3.7bp)
- 10Y-2Y: -39.22bp (4.65bp inversion)
(Gift of Government Bonds)
- - 2YR T-Notes: 101*24   (0*00 , 0%)
- - 5YR T-Notes: 106*08 1/2 (-0*00 3/4, -0.02%)
- - 10YR T-Notes: 109*17   (-0*02 1/2, -0.07%)
- - US T-Bonds: 118*10   (-0*08 , -0.21%)
- - Ultra US T-Bonds: 124*18   (-0*13 , -0.32%)

◆ Commodity Market ($, sweet grain, copper in cents)
- - WTI: 78.87 (+1.06, +1.37%)
- Brent crude: 83.65 (+0.86, +1.04%)
- Gold: 2,044.10 (+0.50, +0.02%)
- Silver: 22.76 (-0.05, -0.24%)
- Zinc (LME, 3M): 2,422.00 (-2.50, -0.10%)
- Copper: 385.05 (+2.10, +0.55%)
- Corn: 423.50 (+2.75, +0.65%)
- Wheat: 584.25 (+9.50, +1.65%)
- Soybeans: 1,140.75 (-2.00, -0.17)

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