But the mid-December FOMC is going to have more data. We're going to have Octobe

I have to write it down in the morning, but I'm sorry. I don't think I'm posting until lunchtime. I'm sure you've checked most of the FOMC that will be released tomorrow morning, roughly through other media reports. In a way, I think it's the least interesting FOMC this year. The market is not paying much attention, and most of them are waiting for Apple's earnings release more than FOMC. The main reason is that it's almost certain that the base rate will not be moved this time. Since the FOMC in mid-September, there hasn't been much time to see the data at this FOMC. It was very ambiguous to see other data except for September employment released in early October and the consumer price index released in mid-October.

But the mid-December FOMC is going to have more data. We're going to have October employment and November employment, which is coming out this weekend. We're going to have the consumer price index for October and November. It's hard to decide by looking at the data. And if we go further, we're going to be able to plot a base rate hike that's slowed down a little bit more. December is going to be a big match. So is this FOMC going to be a humble feast that literally doesn't need attention? I always feel that when I look at the market, but let's not let our guard down. The focus of this FOMC is the Fed's view of "growth."

There have been signs of change since early October. Most hawks, led by the Fed hawk Lori Logan, are hopeful that the rise in market interest rates seems to reduce the need for further tightening of the Fed. Wow, that's not even a pigeon, but a hawk saying something like that....??? Is the rate hike over? LOL I've quoted it for now, but I'm quoting Lori Logan's comment again.

"If long-term interest rates remain high due to term premiums, there is less need to raise federal funds rates," Logan said. This is a statement bolstering the argument that the recent rise in bond rates could have a de facto tightening effect. Earlier, San Francisco's Federal Reserve Governor Mary Daly also argued that the tightening of the bond market is equivalent to one recent rate hike."

However, Logan argued that if bond rates remain high based on faith in the strong U.S. economy, they need to raise the federal funds rate. "If the reason for the rise in long-term interest rates is based on the strength of the economy, the Fed may have to do more," he said. "After all, it is argued that the Fed's policy decisions will also change depending on why long-term bond rates are soaring." (Joint Infomax, 23.10.10)


If you look at the first paragraph, you'll see that a surge in market interest rates is going to replace much of the Fed's rate hikes. Yeah. So if market interest rates are this high, even if the Fed doesn't have to raise them further, it's going to be a case of market tightening on its own. And that would be a happy move for the Fed, but then the next paragraph is important. If you look at the second paragraph, President Logan just stresses that if the current rise in market interest rates is based on faith in a strong American economy, then we should raise interest rates further. Yeah. If we can easily withstand these interest rates, we could see that U.S. prices, which, despite the current high interest rates, were going to be slightly depressed with additional growth, could again shake their heads. Yeah. So the bottom line is, does the Fed think that the current economic situation in the United States is strong? We need to look at that perception.

For your information, the U.S. GDP growth rate in the third quarter of last week was 4.9 percent. It's a pretty formidable growth rate. In the third quarter, it was already above the 4 percent level. Is that going by that easily? So Powell also acknowledged at a conference on the 20th that the current market rate hike partially offsets the base rate hike, but ... I'm just going to put that in perspective.

"Inflation is so high that it leaves open the possibility of a new rate hike," Powell said at a New York Economic Club conference in New York, according to AFP. "Further tightening of monetary policy could come if there is further evidence of consistently over-trend growth or new signs of a tight labor market." (News 1, 23.10.20)

Continuing to grow beyond trend... Yes, the U.S. economy is still really strong... If that's what's driving up market interest rates... that's going to be able to withstand current market rates, that could increase the risk of inflation again. Chairman Powell also indicated that if growth is stronger than expected... we could move. Yes... Mr. Bullard, who appeared just before the Jackson Hole speech in August, said that. If growth is too strong, we could raise it to 6 percent. So, we already told you at the September FOMC that we should see how the Fed forecast sees an upward revision of the U.S. growth forecast. We could further raise our growth projections in December. If that's more than the trend... If that trend continues, then the Fed might think about raising it further. Chairman Powell agreed with that. You'll see the hint in this FOMC. Let's see the level of growth in the U.S. economy that the Fed is looking at.

It would also be nice to monitor the Fed's thoughts on the recent rise in government bond rates, its opinions on neutral interest rates, and the impact of the U.S. deficit on U.S. financial markets. And see if there's something new about the expectations of future interest rate cuts that reporters will hint at. Shorten essays. Thank you.