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I'll give you an hour of tranquilizer.

Tmarket 2025. 1. 12. 19:54
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I'll give you an hour of tranquilizer.

I've been talking about politics for almost a month now since December 3rd. It's not a comfortable story, but I always feel sorry for the inconvenient stories such as, "Who are you going to punish? Who are you going to take responsibility for?", and I'd rather feel comfortable with Trump than transferring Canada and Mexico to the states of the United States, and are you confident in feeding them? Will K-CBDC come out? I want to talk about the same thing, but anyway, I'm tired of talking about politics, too.

Today's Gallup Women, too, is about the recent conservative rally of the women's team.

In conclusion, I would like to say that there is no need to worry at all. The general trend has already been decided, and the Yoon Suk Yeol will be arrested even if it takes some time, and it is unknown what the political reform will look like in the next election, but the national power of the current system cannot extend the regime no matter what the candidate is presented. Lee Joon-seok may be the most difficult to appear as a single conservative candidate, which is considered unlikely as the number of cases in which Lee Jae-myung suddenly moves to the party and becomes a national power candidate.

Then I'll just tell you why.

As the situation has progressed since the December 3 Civil War, the level of questions asking public opinion is roughly divided into four levels.

1. Should Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached?
2. Is Yoon Suk Yeol's act on December 3 a 'civil war'?
3. Should Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested right now?
4. So where do you want to empower now?

In the case of No. 1, I think it's Jungbae with 7:3 against. They say it's 64 to 33, but 6 didn't answer the phone and 3 answered harder on the other side. It's because I think it's going to be impeached.

Even at the time of the impeachment of Park Geun Hye, rallies for and against impeachment were held almost every day in Gwanghwamun, and even at that time, the 7.5-and-2.5 structure in favor was consistently maintained because the uncertainty over the citation of the impeachment was quite strong. It is true that Choi Soon-sil manipulated state affairs, but it was only known whether this really worked clearly as a 'reason' for impeachment.

However, the reasons for impeachment are so clear that they cannot be compared with those of Park Geun Hye. Moreover, the entire nation is watching as the leader of a civil war actually occupies the residence and is staging a sit-in, and generals in the military who participated in the civil war are shedding tears and leaking details of the civil war every day. The testimony gathered so far is strange if impeachment is not allowed.

This makes the impeachment so clear that it is much easier to rally the opposition than the pro-impeachment. If the rally of the pros, who had to be impeached because of the strong uncertainty during the Park Geun Hye, was stronger, this time the uncertainty is less than then, so the rally of the opposition, which must be rejected, is stronger.

Therefore, beyond impeachment, people can judge more conservatively whether the acts of No. 2 and No. 3, or Dec. 3, should be viewed as a "rebellion" like that of Chun Doo-hwan, which is why they should drag him out by pulling his hair back. In No. 2, there is a flurry of excitement or hesitation about 'I'm still in the office for now' and No. 3.

So, the anti-impeachment motion is basically 7:3, but the public opinion on the identification of insurrection and arrest can be more conservative than that. Don't worry, though. Public opinion doesn't change the law, so arrests, impeachment and trials are bound to happen as stipulated by the law while the three opposing impeachment eagerly look back on their theories and burn the happiness circuit of failing to arrest and rejecting impeachment.

Then the remaining question is number 4, and I think the two situations are combined. In reality, a significant number of voters have judged that this is the period of power of the people and Yoon Suk Yeol. In the words of Han Yoon-hyung, it can be said that 'Lee Jae-myung is virtually the same as the current president-elect'. Therefore, my personal opinion is that in the current situation, the Democratic Party of Korea's approval rating should be viewed as a concept similar to that of the ruling party.

It is also believed that narrowing the gap between the Democratic Party and the people's power can serve as a criterion for judging that voters' judgment on the constitution is more stable. If the Yoon Suk Yeol Provincial Party was a real threat to democracy and constitution a few weeks ago, at this point, all but the Yoon Suk Yeol Provincial Party was arrested or prosecuted, and the leader is locked in a sit-in at his official residence. His influence cannot exceed a few hundred meters around his official residence.

Therefore, as soon as voters confirm this, they can judge that the constitutional system will not collapse due to Yoon Suk Yeol. Then, of course, it is Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party of Korea that they turn their heads. Yes, it is. I think the existence of this is unfair to some extent, but 'Lee Jae-myung Phobia' is starting to work now.

The difference between the current Lee Jae-myung Phobia and the past is that if the past Lee Jae-myung Phobia worked under the mechanism of "Lee Jae-myung should not be elected in the election," the current Lee Jae-myung Phobia is a psychology of "Lee Jae-myung will take the next election, of course, but I will check him in advance." In other words, it is because of these thoughts that the current Democratic Party's approval rating should be regarded as the actual ruling party's approval rating.

Of course, I don't think this phenomenon is good or correct. This is because the people's power, the core of the rebellion power, is gaining the same approval rating without any reflection on the act of rebellion. Therefore, it is more likely that they will have more groups that blindly follow Yoon Suk Yeol and Jeon Kwang-hoon based on the current polls.

But where does it work correctly in elections? We've seen it clearly. How the gap in approval ratings will kill one side when it meets a small-sized system

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