U.S. Economic Stock Market Outlook

As a former financier, I've invested in stocks since

Tmarket 2024. 12. 27. 20:08
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As a former financier, I've invested in stocks since 2008, but I don't think there's been a year where I've been hit as much as this year.

Politics is the keyword that dominated the Korean stock market this year.
Financial investment tax, impeachment, prohibition of short selling, value-up, etc.

What should investors buy next year when they go on vacation this season? What do you think the market will be like? What kind of industries do you think look good? It's normal to talk about things like this.

But if you look at it now, everyone is busy fighting, saying that it's left-handed or embarrassing.

Of course, Samsung Electronics' fall played a role in the stock market's fall and there were many yen carry trades.
However, it cannot be denied that the political upheaval has had the biggest impact on the volatility of the Korean stock market.

What about the industry.
Samsung Electronics became the subject of ridicule, and Lotte Chemical, which had never raised capital during the IMF, went crazy.
The M/S of Chinese games is increasing overwhelmingly. The quality of Chinese cars is also increasing.
Joseon is also waiting for Japan to seize the opportunity between political upheaval.

VC has a lot of dry powder, but they don't want to invest unless it's a really good thing.

The exchange rate is approaching 1500.
The potential growth rate is approaching the 1% range, and the Bank of Korea has forecast 1.9% growth next year, but global IBs are forecasting below that.
The five-year average ROE is 7% broken.

Now, people in their 20s and 30s no longer want to be promoted from companies and become executives and representatives.
Everyone wants to be FIRE while doing US stocks, coins, and retire before age 40.
Financiers can only exist if the industry goes well.
It can't be a financial industry in a country where everyone wants to do FIRE.

The story of "Final Fantasy 14: The End of Hyo-wol" is very impressive, so I quote it.

In order to find the answer to "What is the meaning of life?" the ancients sought to find the answer by sending bluebirds to highly advanced alien civilizations.

However, all civilizations that came into contact suffered conflict and frustration, and everyone wanted an end and collapsed in frustration.

So, the blue bird is trying to destroy humanity with the question, "The end of life is death anyway, so why do we have to live?"

I think Korea is like that now.

No one offers a solution to the high exchange rate, weakening corporate competitiveness, gender conflict, and political conflict.
Businessmen are struggling with weakened competitiveness and lack of financing, and financiers are starving because the industry is not working.
Start-up representatives do not want to start a business and grow it into a global company, but want to sell it to Naver-Kakao or IPO and exit.
Newcomers to society are hanging up on coins and U.S. stocks to do FIRE before the age of 40.
Politicians fight for power without anyone offering a solution.

Why on earth should we invest in Korea?

I feel for myself that it has become more difficult to answer this question than ever since I was 20.

Well, it's a crime to choose the financial industry as a career in a country of private agriculture and industry.

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