Jobless claims announced today also showed
Jobless claims announced today also showed signs of a bad economy, but as the ISM service index rose slightly from last month, the miscellaneous data announced today became the real main event. Market expectations surveyed by Bloomberg are as follows.
Nonfarm payrolls: +165,000 vs. +114,000 previously
Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs. 4.3% previously
Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.2% previously
Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.7% vs. +3.6% previously
Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.2 previously
According to tonight's announcement, the market seems to be expecting a jumbo cut at the Fed meeting during Chuseok. I decided to think of this as a game theory. There is no need to mention game theory in a grand way, and I decided to think about human psychology and what if I were a politician. In the end, there will be two cases where miscellaneous data comes out better than the market expected or as disastrous as last month, and vaguely, a little less or slightly more than the market expected. The worst will be the last scenario, but we will bet on the probability of the next two.
Let's write down the details after we make a bet at the end of the market. I also have to position myself cheaply. It's a common investment method for option traders to take a buy position when the probability is fifty-fifty, but I'm thinking of doing it differently. Anyway, let's talk about that after the market ends.
One of the proudest things about our country is the healthcare system. It was an emergency medical system, a health insurance system with relatively low costs of care, and doctors' dedication to getting medical attention quickly. But the battle between politicians and doctors over the addition of 2,000 medical schools has left us in a situation where this wonderful system is going to be broken. Seniors still support the president more than 50 percent. But the generation that needs medical attention most must be in their 70s and beyond. Ironically, I'm sure.