Since I'm not smart enough to invest in the wake

Since I'm not smart enough to invest in the wake of the Enkeree crisis, I've summarized for myself what will be an issue in the stock market in the future. I think we need to look at indicators for US CPI and Retail Sales on Wednesday and Thursday nights in our time. And in the long run, the possibility, extent, and speed of a rate cut will be the extent to which we are concerned about a recession, or finally whether we are completely out of the sphere of influence of Enkeree.

After Japan's interest rate hike and the surprise ISM producer index came out on Monday, the market has suffered severe turbulence and recovered to some extent. As markets around the world tumbled on Monday, the market urgently called for a rate cut to be lowered by more than 50 basis points by an emergency meeting instead of in September. CPI projections on Wednesday suggested a steady fall in the rant and a steady slide in oil prices, with no Middle East turmoil yet to emerge. However, there seems to be more concern that worsening employment indicators, rising credit card delinquency and the most contentious decline in U.S. personal savings (?) may cause the economy to enter a recession as retail sales announced on Thursday turn sour due to lower consumption.

If the CPI is stable, the scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is expected to be maintained, but if the retail sales indicators are bad, I expect there will be another talk about the extent of the rate cut (50 basis points). However, the growth outlook of the U.S. by the IMF and the World Bank is still unchanged, and even from the comments made by the FED members last week, I think the U.S. will achieve growth in the late 2% range. If so, the possibility of unreasonably lowering the interest rate by 50 basis points will be small when there is no visible recession data yet. And even if the delinquency rate rises due to the drop in subsidies received during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is said that consumption increases due to the increased delinquency rate of even the money that Americans have spent on their cards. Except for the credit card delinquency rate, wages are steadily coming in even if American households' savings decrease, and it is expected that they have made a lot of investment profits due to the rise in stocks over the past year, which means that they are still concluding that consumption, which accounts for more than 70% of the U.S. GDP, will decrease.

If so, I strongly vote for a 25 basis point cut scenario in September, if the inflation continues to stabilize, but not the 2% the Fed expects, and the Fed sees this as 2026, but CPI indicators are unlikely to have any impact on the FED decision and Retail Sales are not badly shaken.

If that happens, the ball will have no choice but to move back to the Jackson Hole meeting, which will take place on the 23rd. I'd like to go to Lake Jackson, which is famous for its beautiful natural scenery in Wyoming. By the way, the U.S. is going to scold the BOK for throwing a stone at the global stock market. As expected in my article, the issue has been put under water because the BOK has postponed raising interest rates in the future, but if the U.S. raises interest rates, won't it be a variable to the effect of Japan's rate hike or 50 percentage points? If so, shouldn't the U.S. lower interest rates as much to prevent the yen case? Or should we lower interest rates as much as the market wants to to prevent a recession? Let's think together....Is it still Bad is Good or will the frame switch to Bad is Bad? I'm sure it's because I'm brainy and overloaded with organizing, so I think it's heavy...