Stocks rallied today, but what the stock market

Stocks rallied today, but what the stock market showed last week was enough to make us wonder. Investors were on edge about the U.S. unemployment rate announced Friday, as the indicators that drove the stock market to the brink of collapse in August were the Bank of Japan's rate hike and the U.S. unemployment rate. Actually, the indicators were not so bad. The worried unemployment rate was reported at 4.2 percent, lower than the previous month. Non-farm payrolls were a bit lower than expected, but not at the level of concern. So, the stock market seemed to have started off fresh. However, as time went by, the decline grew. In the end, most large caps ended up in a blood-red market with a drop of more than 3 percent.

Leading the decline was Nvidia, the market leader. Nvidia has fallen more than 4%, its stock price has remained flat in the past month, and its rate of increase in the past six months has barely reached double digits. Why on earth did the stock market respond to the Good News by throwing it away? Most economists view the possibility of a future recession as low. The surprising rise in unemployment last month is regarded as a temporary phenomenon caused by the hurricane effect. It is diagnosed that the recession will not come because the housing market is holding up, consumption is still strong, and companies are reluctant to fire. Nevertheless, we cannot deny that there is something uncomfortable. It is said that employment is increasing, but if you look around, you don't feel that the job market is good. The increase in NFP is also driven by retail sectors such as healthcare and construction. There is only news about where the high-quality IT and financial sectors are going to fire.

The U.S. Department of Labor has provided some explanation for this anxiety. He recently admitted that the NFP statistics, which surprised the market whenever the Labor Department announced them, were in fact greatly inflated. The company announced that it had hired, but corrected that the number of cases in which actual employment was not made in the past year reached 820,000 by March. In addition, the latest figure has also been lowered. If the influx of immigrants is properly caught in statistics, the number of unemployed in the economy is likely to be much greater. It was a moment when the possibility of a recession, which had been dismissed as a whining of pessimists, surfaced. Uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election also ignited investor anxiety. The market is walking a tightrope as Trump's popularity to raise tariffs has proven to be daunting. We are also worried that the recession will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.